2005 RACE TO THE CHASE:  TIGHTER THAN LAST YEAR

 

With four races to go last year, the race for the final five spots in The Chase is even tighter than last year’s Race to the Chase. Consider:

2004 --  Elliott Sadler was in sixth place after Watkins Glen, 223 points ahead of 14^th place Dale Jarrett and 160 points ahead of 11^th place Kasey Kahne.

2005—Kurt Busch, in sixth place, clings to a 102 point lead over 11^th place and there’s only 169 points total between sixth and 14^th, occupied by Kevin Harvick.

Plus, factor in that former champions Dale Jarrett, Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth all lurk within 165 points or better from 10^th place.

 

How many points will it take to make The Chase?

 

·          It took 3186 points to make The Chase in 2004, which was RYAN NEWMAN’s point total.  After Watkins Glen last year, Newman stood in 13^th position, with 2627 points.  CARL EDWARDS is 10^th now, 34 points behind Newman’s pace of a year ago. So, just for giggles, let’s assume it will take 34 points less than last year to make 10^th place. Thus, here’s the path for the current contenders to reach 3152 points over the next five races.

 

Need to

Reach    

Pos.-Driver                                    Pts.         3152

 

16—MATT KENSETH                     2428        724

15—DALE EARNHARDT JR.          2430        722

14—KEVIN HARVICK                     2523        629

13—JEFF GORDON                        2526        626

12—DALE JARRETT                      2590        590

11—ELLIOTT SADLER                  2590        590

10—CARL EDWARDS                    2593        587

9—JAMIE MCMURRAY                 2599        581

8—RYAN NEWMAN                        2646        506

7—JEREMY MAYFIELD                 2684        468

6—KURT BUSCH                            2692        460

5—MARK MARTIN                         2782        370

4—RUSTY WALLACE                    2855        297

 

Here’s Junior’s pathway to 10^th place:

Michigan                        Finish--3rd                                   170 points (lead a lap bonus)

Bristol                            Finish--1^st                              190 points

California                       Finish—2nd                           180 points (lead a lap bonus)

Richmond                      Finish--1^st                              190 points

                                         TOTAL   730 POINTS

 

 

CLINCH/ELIMINATION SCENARIOS (going into Michigan #2)

Needed to Clinch:  571 point lead over 11^th place after Michigan

Deficit Needed to Be Eliminated:  571 points out of 10^th place and 761 out of 1^st place after Michigan

 

Rank-Driver                           Current Spread    Gain Needed

1—Tony Stewart                  +523 over 11^th        +48 on 11^th

2—Jimmie Johnson            +418 over 11^th        +153 on 11^th

 

23—Casey Mears through 32—Dave Blaney are in danger of being eliminated from Chase contention at Michigan   

 

 

THE HEAT INDEX

(Last 5 Races)

RED HOT                                                                 ICE COLD

1—Tony Stewart                  871                                          1—Travis Kvapil                   260

2—Brian Vickers                  728                                          2—Scott Riggs                      353

3—Mark Martin                    714                                          3—Jeff Burton                      383

4—Rusty Wallace                 682                                          4—Dave Blaney                     386

5—Kurt Busch                      662                                          5—Ken Schrader                  409

6—Jeremy Mayfield            655                                          6—Elliott Sadler                    412

7—Matt Kenseth                 638                                          6—Michael Waltrip               412

8—Jimmie Johnson            630                                          8—Scott Wimmer                458

9—Kasey Kahne                   564                                          9—Kyle Petty                        473

10—Dale Jarrett                   560                                          10—Jeff Green                     481

 

THE TURNAROUNDS

(Position in Race to the Chase Versus Last Year at this time)

GOOD TURNS                                                                                         BAD TURNS

Rank-Driver                           05            04            Diff.                         Rank-Driver                           05            04            Diff.

1—Greg Biffle                       3              24            +21                          1—Bobby Labonte               24            9              -15

2—Rusty Wallace                 4              18            +14                          2—Earnhardt Jr.                   15            3              -12

3—Carl Edwards                  10            23            +13                          3—Jeff Gordon                     13            2              -11

4—Mark Martin                    5              13            +8                            3—Matt Kenseth                 16            5              -11

4—Joe Nemechek               17            25            +8                           

 

TOP 15  CONTENDERS (By Ownership, By Manufacturer)

BY OWNER

ROUSH (4)  --  3-Greg Biffle,  5—Mark Martin, 6—Kurt Busch, 

PENSKE (2)  --  4-Rusty Wallace,  8-Ryan Newman

YATES (2)  --  11-Elliott Sadler, 12—Dale Jarrett

HENDRICK (2)  --  2—Jimmie Johnson,  13-Jeff Gordon

GIBBS (1)  --  1—Tony Stewart

EVERNHAM (1)  --  7-Jeremy Mayfield

GANASSI (1)  --  9-Jamie McMurray

CHILDRESS (1)  --  14-Kevin Harvick

DEI (1) --  15—Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 

2005 RACE TO THE CHASE
After Race #22 of 26:  Watkins Glen

Races Left to the Chase:  4 (15%)

 

05/LW/04                                Season  Out of     Out of     Out of     LastRce Gain        Last 5     Finishes                                Top         Top                Bottom   Bonus-

Driver                     Pts.         1^st            10^th          11^th          Fin/Pts    11^th          Pts/Gain 1—2—3                   5s            10s          10s          Penalty Pts

 

1/1/4-Stewart        3113        --            +520        +523        1/190       +75          871/+2     5—3—1                   10            14            0              95-0

2/2/1-Johnson       3008        -105         +415        +418        5/160       +45          630/-1      2—2—2                   9              14            3              70-25

3/3/24-Biffle           2861        -252         +268        +271        38/49       -66           556/-1      5—0—1                   7              11            3              85-0

4/4/18-RWallace     2855        -258         +262        +265        6/150       +35          682/+1     0—1—0                   5              12            1              30-0

5/6/13-Martin         2782        -331         +189        +192        7/146       +31          714/+3     0—0—4                   6              12            1              30-0

6/5/7-KuBusch       2692        -421         +99          +102        39/46       -69           662/+3     2—2—3                   7              11            5              65-0

7/8/10-Mayfield     2684        -429         +91          +94          11/130     +15          655/+4     0—0—0                   3              5              0              25-0

8/7/12-Newman     2646        -467         +53          +56          30/78       -37           531/-2      0—0—1                   5              10            3              65-0

9/11/15-McMurray2599        -514         +6            +9            13/124     +9            506/-2      0—1—0                   4              7              1              5-0

10/10/NA-Edwards2593        -520         --             +3            19/106     -9             566/+2     2—0—1                   6              8              3              25-0

                                                                                                                Gain

                                                                                                                10th

11/12/6-Sadler       2590        -523         -3             --             12/127     +21          412/-7      0—1—0                   1              9              2              35-0

12/9/14-Jarrett      2590        -523         -3             -1             22/97       -9             560/-2      0—0—0                   3              5              1              10-0

13/14/2-JGordon   2526        -587         -67           -64           14/126     +20          544/E       3—1—0                   5              8              3              55-0

14/13/8-Harvick     2523        -590         -70           -67           15/118     +12          577/E       1—0—0                   3              6              1              35-25

15/16/3-ErnhrdtJr 2430        -683         -163         -160         10/134     +28          558/+1     1—0—2                   5              9              3              15-0

16/15/5-Kenseth   2428        -685         -165         -162         18/109     +3            638/+3     0—1—0                   3              7              3              45-0

17/17/25-Nemchk  2386        -727         -207         -204         9/138       +32          546/+1     0—1—1                   1              5              2              40-0

18/22/22-Vickers  2349        -764         -244         -241         8/142       +36          728/+4     0—1—1                   4              7              6              45-0

19/21/11-Kahne     2324        -789         -269         -266         17/112     +6           564/+2     1—2—1                   6              6              6              40-0

20/20/NA-KyBusch2290        -823         -303         -300         33/64       -42           525/E       0—2—0                   5              8              5              20-25

21/19/17-Waltrip    2282        -831         -311         -308         41/45       -61           412/-4      0—1—1                   3              7              7              45-0

22/18/23-JBurton  2274        -839         -319         -316         43/34       -72           383/-7      0—0—1                   1              2              3              5-0

23/24/16-Mears     2096        -1017       -497         -494         23/94       -12           554/+5     0—1—0                   1              4              4              15-0

24/23/9-BLabonte 2094        -1019       -499         -496         36/55       -51           529/+1     0—1—1                   2              5              8              15-0

25/26/27-Rudd       2063        -1050       -530         -527         16/115     +9            529/+4     0—1—0                   1              5              5              10-0

26/27/NA-Bliss       2010        -1103       -583         -580         26/85       -21           514/+6     0—0—0                   0              1              7              0-0

27/29/31-Petty       1980        -1133       -613         -610         20/103     -3             473/+4     0—0—0                   0              1              3              50-0

28/25/20-Marlin     1971        -1142       -622         -619         NA/0        -106         350/-5      0—0—0                   1              4              6              25-0

29/28/32-Schrader1963        -1150       -630         -627         32/67       -39           409/-3      0—0—0                   0              3              5              30-0

30/32/33-JGreen   1951        -1162       -642         -639         24/91       -15           481/+3     0—0—0                   0              0              3              15-0

31/31/30-Riggs      1940        -1173       -653         -650         31/70       -36           353/-7      0—0—0                   1              3              4              10-0

32/30/35-Blaney     1937        -1176       -656         -653         34/61       -45           386/-5      0—0—0                   0              1              5              10-0

33/34/26-Wimmer 1817        -1296       -776         -773         21/100     -6             458/+1     0—0—0                   0              0              4              25-0

34/33/NA-Kvapil     1767        -1346       -826         -823         40/43       -63           260/-4      0—0—0                   0              1              5              10-0

 

 

LEADER PACE

(The likelihood of the 400-point Wild Card will be determined by the pace set by the leader after 26 races. Here is the pace after 22 races)

 

2005                                        2004                                        *2003                                                       *2002

1 T Stewart           3113        1 J Johnson      3143            1 M Kenseth    3294                             1 S Marlin              2944

10 C Edwards       -520         10 J Mayfield      -487           10 R Gordon     -667                              10 M Kenseth       -280

4 teams within 400 pts       6 teams within 400              2 teams within 400                                              11 teams within 400

4 teams with 156 of 10^th      5 teams within 156 of 10th 5 teams with 156 of 10^th                      2 teams within 156 of 10th

 

JULY PERFORMANCE  (4 Races:  Daytona #2, Chicago, New Hampshire #1, Pocono #2)

Driver                                     Pts            Start of Month       Month Finish                     Spots Gained/Lost

1—Tony Stewart                  681                          4                              2                                              +2

2—Rusty Wallace                 604                          6                              4                                              +2

3—Jimmie Johnson            571                          2                              1                                              +1

4—Kurt Busch                      559                          8                              5                                              +3

5—Dale Earnhardt Jr.          555                          18                            14                                            +4

6—Ryan Newman                 513                          7                              6                                              +1

7—Matt Kenseth                  507                          20                            17                                            +3

8—Dale Jarrett                     502                          12                            10                                            +2

9—Ricky Rudd                      498                          30                            24                                            +6

10—Jeremy Mayfield          492                          11                            8                                              +3

10—Brian Vickers                492                          23                            22                                            +1

12—Bobby Labonte             489                          26                            23                                            +3

13—Mark Martin                  468                          5                              7                                              -2

14—Greg Biffle                     462                          1                              3                                              -2

15—Joe Nemechek             447                          17                            16                                            +1

16—Kevin Harvick                444                          13                            13                                            E

17—Jamie McMurray          440                          10                            11                                            -1

18—Jeff Gordon                   422                          14                            15                                            -1

19—Mike Bliss                     402                          33                            30                                            +3

20—Carl Edwards                397                          9                              12                                            -3

20—Kyle Busch                    397                          19                            20                                            -1

20—Kasey Kahne                 397                          21                            21                                            E

23—Ken Schrader                379                          28                            29                                            -1

24—Jeff Burton                    376                          16                            18                                            -2

25—Mike Wallace                 365                          35                            35                                            E

26—Kyle Petty                      347                          32                            31                                            +1

27—Casey Mears                339                          25                            25                                            E

28—Scott Wimmer              335                          34                            34                                            E

29—Dave Blaney                   334                          27                            28                                            -1

30—Jeff Green                     333                          31                            32                                            -1

31—Elliott Sadler                  318                          3                              9                                              -6

32—Sterling Marlin              309                          24                            26                                            -2

33—Michael Waltrip             295                          15                            19                                            -4

34—Scott Riggs                    265                          22                            27                                            -5

35—Travis Kvapil                 259                          29                            33                                            -4

 

JUNE PERFORMANCE (4 Races:  Dover #1, Pocono #1, Michigan #1, Infineon)

Driver                                     Pts.            Start of Month       Month Finish                    Spots Gained/Lost

1—Mark Martiin                   599                          12                            5                                              +7

2—Rusty Wallace                 584                          11                            6                                              +5

3—Greg Biffle                       574                          2                              1                                              +1

4—Tony Stewart                  564                          6                              4                                              +2

5—Kurt Busch                      537                          10                            8                                              +2

6—Michael Waltrip               532                          18                            15                                            +3

7—Elliott Sadler                    531                          3                              3                                              E

8—Kyle Busch                      516                          22                            19                                            +3

9—Carl Edwards                  504                          8                              9                                              -1

10—Matt Kenseth                503                          23                            20                                            +3

11—Joe Nemechek             496                          19                            17                                            +2

12—Jeremy Mayfield          485                          13                            11                                            +2

13—Jimmie Johnson          481                          1                              2                                              -1

14—Jamie McMurray          472                          9                              10                                            -1

15—Ryan Newman               464                          4                              7                                              -3

15—Dale Jarrett                   464                          14                            12                                            +2

17—Jeff Burton                    436                          17                            16                                            +1

18—Brian Vickers                431                          27                            23                                            +4

19—Travis Kvapil                 409                          33                            29                                            +4

20—Casey Mears                408                          28                            25                                            +3
21—Kevin Harvick                370                          7                              13                                            -6

22—Scott Riggs                    367                          21                            22                                            -1

23—Bobby Labonte             364                          24                            26                                            -2

24—Ricky Rudd                    361                          32                            30                                            +2

25—Dave Blaney                   328                          25                            27                                            -2

25—Scott Wimmer              328                          35                            34                                            +1

27—Jeff Gordon                   320                          5                              14                                            -9

28—Jeff Green                     316                          31                            31                                            E

29—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        310                          15                            18                                            -3

29—Sterling Marlin              310                          20                            24                                            -4

31—Kyle Petty                      306                          30                            32                                            -2

32—Ken Schrader                297                          26                            28                                            -2

33—Kasey Kahne                 289                          16                            21                                            -5

34—Mike Bliss                     295                          29                            33                                            -4

35—Mike Wallace                *188                          34                            35                                            -1

* Wallace missed the Infineon race

 

 

 

MAY PERFORMANCE (4 Races:  Talladega, Darlington, Richmond, Charlotte)

Driver                                     Pts.             Start of Month       Month Finish                   Spots Gained/Lost

1—Greg Biffle                       624                          3                              2                              +1

2—Tony Stewart                  575                          14                            6                              +8

3—Kasey Kahne                   541                          20                            16                            +4

4—Jamie McMurray            539                          15                            9                              +6

5—Ryan Newman                 536                          7                              4                              +3

6—Kevin Harvick                  534                          11                            7                              +4

7—Elliott Sadler                    533                          5                              3                              +2

8—Bobby Labonte               528                          34                            24                            +10

9—Jeremy Mayfield            513                          16                            13                            +3

10—Jeff Gordon                   489                          4                              5                              -1

11—Jimmie Johnson          487                          1                              1                              E

12—Carl Edwards                480                          8                              8                              E

13—Ken Schrader                472                          32                            26                            +6

14—Rusty Wallace               469                          10                            11                            -1

15—Dale Jarrett                   459                          13                            14                            -1

16—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        450                          12                            15                            -3

17—Jeff Burton                    446                          17                            17                            E

18—Joe Nemechek             433                          24                            19                            +5

19—Michael Waltrip             429                          18                            18                            E

20—Mark Martin                  426                          6                              12                            -6

21—Jeff Green                     406                          29                            31                            +2

22—Matt Kenseth                401                          28                            23                            +5

23—Ricky Rudd                    390                          31                            32                            -1

24—Kyle Busch                    387                          25                            22                            +3

25—Mike Wallace                 371                          36                            34                            +2

26—Kurt Busch                    354                          2                              10                            -8

27—Dave Blaney                   340                          21                            25                            -4

28—Travis Kvapil                 336                          30                            33                            -3

29—Scott Wimmer              334                          33                            35                            -2

30—Scott Riggs                    333                          19                            21                            -2

31—Mike Bliss                     331                          27                            29                            -2

32—Brian Vickers                319                          23                            27                            -4

33—Casey Mears                312                          26                            28                            -2

34—Kyle Petty                      299                          22                            30                            -8

35—Sterling Marlin              246                          9                              20                            -11

 

 

APRIL PERFORMANCE  (4 Races:  Bristol, Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix)

Driver                                     Pts.              Start of Month       Month Finish                  Spots Gained/Lost

1—Earnhardt Jr.                   582                          26                            12                            +14

2—Jimmie Johnson            580                          1                              1                              E

3—Jeff Gordon                     563                          12                            4                              +8

4—Sterling Marlin                530                          16                            9                              +7

5—Elliott Sadler                    527                          8                              5                              +3

6—Michael Waltrip               514                          27                            18                            +9

7—Kurt Busch                      510                          4                              2                              +2

8—Jeremy Mayfield            494                          21                            16                            +5

9—Dale Jarrett                     491                          15                            13                            +2

10—Rusty Wallace               483                          9                              10                            -1

11—Kevin Harvick                482                          11                            11                            E

12—Ryan Newman               479                          6                              7                              -1

13—Jeff Burton                    462                          20                            17                            +3

14—Kasey Kahne                 461                          28                            20                            +8

15—Mark Martin                  458                          5                              6                              -1

16—Greg Biffle                     454                          2                              3                              -1

17—Joe Nemechek             444                          29                            24                            +5

18—Jamie McMurray          437                          10                            15                            -5

18—Ricky Rudd                    437                          39                            31                            +8

20—Kyle Petty                      417                          24                            22                            +2

21—Scott Riggs                    415                          18                            19                            -1

22—Brian Vickers                406                          22                            23                            -1

22—Matt Kenseth                406                          31                            28                            +3

24—Tony Stewart                399                          7                              14                            -7

25—Carl Edwards                386                          3                              8                              -5

26—Kyle Busch                    372                          19                            25                            -6

27—Bobby Labonte             365                          37                            34                            +3

28—Casey Mears                357                          17                            26                            -9

29—Travis Kvapil                 344                          32                            30                            +2

30—Dave Blaney                   340                          14                            21                            -7

31—Ken Schrader                338                          33                            32                            +1

32—Mike Bliss                     307                          13                            27                            -14

32—Jeff Green                     307                          23                            29                            -6

32—Jason Leffler                307                          34                            35                            -1

35—Scott Wimmer              261                          25                            33                            -8