2005 RACE TO THE CHASE:  CHASERS STRUGGLE, CHASEES GAIN SOME CUSHION

 

Michigan was a good day for the drivers currently in the top 10. Note the gains made by six drivers:

5 --  MARK MARTIN:  Only managed a 17^th at Michigan, but gained 56 points on 11^th place

6 --  JEREMY MAYFIELD:   Surprise win  jumped him one spot and gained 124 points on 11^th

7 --  KURT BUSCH:  Seventh place and 10 bonus points gained 95 points on 11^th

8 --  RYAN NEWMAN:  A 12^th at Michigan gained him 66 points on 11^th

9 --  CARL EDWARDS:  A 4^th gained him 104 precious points over 11^th

10 --  JAMIE MCMURRAY:  A 20^th still gained 42 points over 11^th

11 --  DALE JARRETT:  Gained a spot despite a 34^th, but lost 48 points on 10^th

12 --  JEFF GORDON:  Salvaged a 15^th but gained only 9 on 10^th

13  --  ELLIOTT SADLER:  A 39^th lost him two spots and 63 points on 10^th

14 --  KEVIN HARVICK:  A 22^nd at MIS lost 12 more points on 10^th

15 --  MATT KENSETH:  A strong 3^rd gained a spot and 61 points on 10^th

16 --  DALE EARNHARDT JR:  Finished 18^th, lost a spot and gained only 5 on 10^th

 

How many points will it take to make The Chase?

 

·          It took 3186 points to make The Chase in 2004, which was RYAN NEWMAN’s point total.  After Michigan #2 last year, KASEY KAHNE stood in 10^th position, with 2792 points.  JAMIE MCMURRAY is in 10^th now, 90 points behind Kahne’s pace of a year ago. So, just for giggles, let’s assume it will take 45 points less than last year to make 10^th place. Thus, here’s the path for the current contenders to reach 3141 points over the next three races.

 

Need to

Reach    

Pos.-Driver                                    Pts.         3141

 

16—DALE EARNHARDT JR.          2544      *597

15—MATT KENSETH                     2598        543

14—KEVIN HARVICK                     2620        521

13—ELLIOTT SADLER                  2636        505

12—JEFF GORDON                        2644        497

11—DALE JARRETT                      2651        484

10—JAMIE MCMURRAY               2702        439

9—CARL EDWARDS                      2758        383

8—RYAN NEWMAN                        2773        368

7—KURT BUSCH                            2848        293

6—JEREMY MAYFIELD                 2869        272

5—MARK MARTIN                         2899        242

 

·          570 is the most Junior can score in three races. He needs help from the rest of the contenders.

 

Here’s Matt Kenseth’s pathway to 3141 points.

Bristol                            Finish—3rd                           170 points (lead a lap bonus)

California                       Finish—1st                            190 points (lead a lap and most laps bonus)

Richmond                      Finish—1st                            185 points (lead a lap bonus)

                                         TOTAL   545 POINTS

 

CLINCH/ELIMINATION SCENARIOS (going into Bristol #2)

Needed to Clinch:  381 point lead over 11^th place after Bristol

Deficit Needed to Be Eliminated:  381 points out of 10^th place and 761 out of 1^st place after Bristol

 

Rank-Driver                           Current Spread    Gain Needed

1—Tony Stewart                  +617 over 11^th        CLINCHED at Michigan

2—Jimmie Johnson            +491 over 11^th        Lose less than 110 points on 11^th

3—Greg Biffle                       +365 over 11^th        +16 points on 11th

4—Rusty Wallace                 +328 over 11^th        +53 points on 11^th

5—Mark Martin                    +248 over 11^th        +133 points on 11^th

 

ELIMINATION:  19^th place Kasey Kahne through 25^th place Ricky Rudd are vulnerable to elimination at Bristol. 26^th on back have been eliminated.

 

THE HEAT INDEX

(Last 5 Races)

RED HOT                                                                 ICE COLD

1—Tony Stewart                  871                                          1—Travis Kvapil                   275

2—Brian Vickers                  706                                          2—Jeff Burton                      395

3—Mark Martin                    697                                          3—Dave Blaney                     404

4—Jeremy Mayfield            690                                          4—Elliott Sadler                    406

5—Carl Edwards                 685                                          5—Ken Schrader                  407

6—Rusty Wallace                 682                                          6—Scott Riggs                      434

7—Kurt Busch                      676                                          7—Scott Wimmer                435

8—Matt Kenseth                  628                                          8—Michael Waltrip               439

9—Kasey Kahne                   605                                          9—Kyle Busch                      443

10—Jeff Gordon                   598                                          10—Kyle Petty                      450

 

 

THE TURNAROUNDS

(Position in Race to the Chase Versus Last Year at this time)

GOOD TURNS                                                                                         BAD TURNS

Rank-Driver                           05            04            Diff.                         Rank-Driver                           05            04            Diff.

1—Greg Biffle                       3              18            +15                          1—Bobby Labonte               24            9              -15

1—Rusty Wallace                 4              19            +15                          2—Earnhardt Jr.                   16            3              -13

3—Carl Edwards                  9              22            +13                          3—Jeff Gordon                     12            1              -11

4—Joe Nemechek               17            25            +8                            4—Matt Kenseth                 15            5              -10

5—Mark Martin                    5              12            +7                            5—Kasey Kahne                   19            10            -9

 

 

TOP 15  CONTENDERS (By Ownership, By Manufacturer)

BY OWNER

ROUSH (5)  --  3-Greg Biffle,  5—Mark Martin, 7—Kurt Busch,  9—Carl Edwards, 15—Matt Kenseth

PENSKE (2)  --  4-Rusty Wallace,  8-Ryan Newman

HENDRICK (2) --  2—Jimmie Johnson, 12—Jeff Gordon

YATES (2)  --  11—Dale Jarrett, 13—Elliott Sadler

GIBBS (1)  --  1—Tony Stewart

EVERNHAM (1)  --  6-Jeremy Mayfield

GANASSI (1)  --  10--Jamie McMurray

CHILDRESS (1)  --  14-Kevin Harvick

 

BY MANUFACTURER

FORD (7)  --  3-Greg Biffle,  5—Mark Martin, 7-Kurt Busch,  9-Carl Edwards,  11-Dale Jarrett, 13-Elliott Sadler, 15-Matt Kenseth

CHEVROLET (4)  --  1-Tony Stewart,  2-Jimmie Johnson,  12-Jeff Gordon, 14--Kevin Harvick

DODGE (4)  --  4-Rusty Wallace,  6-Jeremy Mayfield,  8-Ryan Newman,  10-Jamie McMurray

 

 

2005 RACE TO THE CHASE
After Race #23 of 26:  Michigan #2

Races Left to the Chase:  3 (12%)

 

05/LW/04                                Season  Out of     Out of     Out of     LastRce Gain        Last 5     Finishes                                Top         Top                Bottom   Bonus-

Driver                     Pts.         1^st            10^th          11^th          Fin/Pts    11^th          Pts/Gain 1—2—3                   5s            10s          10s          Penalty Pts

 

1/1/4-Stewart        3268        --            +566        +617        5/155       +94          871/+2     5—3—1                   11            15            0              95-0

2/2/2-Johnson       3142        -126         +440        +491        10/134     +73          594/-1      2—2—2                   9              15            3              70-25

3/3/18-Biffle           3016        -252         +314        +365        6/155       +94          576/-1      5—0—1                   7              12            3              90-0

4/4/19-RWallace     2979        -289         +277        +328        12/127     +63          682/E       0—1—0                   5              12            1              30-0

5/5/12-Martin         2899        -369         +197        +248        17/117     +56          697/+1     0—0—4                   6              12            1              35-0

6/7/11-Mayfield     2869        -399         +167        +218        1/185       +124        690/+3     1—0—0                   4              6              0              30-0

7/6/6-KuBusch       2848        -420         +146        +197        7/156       +95          676/+3     2—2—3                   7              12            5              75-0

8/8/13-Newman     2773        -495         +71          +122        12/127     +66          577/-1      0—0—1                   5              10            3              65-0

9/10/NA-Edwards 2758        -510         +56          +107        4/165       +104        685/+3     2—0—1                   7              9              3              30-0

10/9/15-McMurray2702        -566         --             +51          20/103     +42          512/-2      0—1—0                   4              7              1              5-0

                                                                                                                Gain

                                                                                                                10th

11/12/14-Jarrett    2651        -617         -51           --             34/61       -48           512/E       0—0—0                   3              5              2              10-0

12/13/1-JGordon   2644        -624         -58           -7             15/118     +9            598/+3     3—1—0                   5              8              3              55-0

13/11/7-Sadler       2636        -632         -66           -15           39/46       -63           406/-8      0—1—0                   1              9              3              35-0

14/14/8-Harvick     2620        -648         -82           -31           22/97       -12           568/E       1—0—0                   3              6              1              35-25

15/16/5-Kenseth  2598        -670         -104         -53           3/170       +61          628/+1     0—1—1                   4              8              3              50-0

16/15/3-ErnhrdtJr 2544        -724         -158         -107         18/114     +5            487/-3      1—0—2                   5              9              3              20-0

17/17/25-Nemchk  2533        -735         -169         -118         8/147       +38          575/+1     0—1—1                   1              6              2              45-0

18/18/24-Vickers  2487        -781         -215         -164         9/138       +29          706/+4     0—1—1                   4              8              6              45-0

19/19/10-Kahne     2405        -863         -297         -246         29/81       -28          605/+2     1—2—1                   6              6              6              45-0

20/21/17-Waltrip    2364        -904         -338         -287         27/82       -27           439/-1      0—1—1                   3              7              7              45-0

21/22/22-JBurton  2359        -909         -343         -292         26/85       -24           395/-4      0—0—1                   1              2              3              5-0

22/20/NA-KyBsch  2329        -939         -373         -322         43/39       -70           443/-2      0—2—0                   5              8              6              25-25

23/23/16-Mears     2217        -1051       -485         -434         14/121     +12          537/+2     0—1—0                   1              4              4              15-0

24/24/9-BLabonte 2209        -1059       -493         -442         16/115     +6            520/E       0—1—1                   2              5              8              15-0

25/25/27-Rudd       2169        -1099       -533         -482         19/106     -3             489/+2     0—1—0                   1              5              5              10-0

26/31/29-Riggs      2115        -1153       -587         -536         2/175       +66          434/E       0—1—0                   2              4              4              15-0

27/28/20-Marlin     2076        -1192       -626         -575         21/105     -4             NA/NA     0—0—0                   1              4              6              30-0

28/26/NA-Bliss       2062        -1206       -640         -589         37/52       -57           505/+4     0—0—0                   0              1              8              0-0

29/29/33-Schrader2051        -1217       -651         -600         25/88       -21           407/-1      0—0—0                   0              3              5              30-0

30/27/31-Petty       2044        -1224       -658         -607         33/64       -45           450/E       0—0—0                   0              1              3              50-0

31/30/32-JGreen   2042        -1226       -660         -609         24/91       -18           481/E       0—0—0                   0              0              3              15-0

32/32/36-Blaney     2004        -1264       -698         -647         32/67       -42           404/-3      0—0—0                   0              1              5              10-0

33/33/26-Wimmer 1911        -1357       -791         -740         23/94       -15           435/+1     0—0—0                   0              0              4              25-0

34/34/NA-Kvapil     1816        -1452       -886         -835         38/49       -60           275/-1      0—0—0                   0              1              6              10-0

 

 

LEADER PACE

(The likelihood of the 400-point Wild Card will be determined by the pace set by the leader after 26 races. Here is the pace after 23 races)

 

2005                                        2004                                        *2003                                                       *2002

1 T Stewart           3268        1 J Gordon       3254             1 M Kenseth    3432                             1 S Marlin              3094

10 J McMurray      -566         10 K Kahne        -462             10 R Gordon     -655                              10 D Jarrett           -309

5 teams within 400 pts       6 teams within 400              1 team within 400                                10 teams within 400

5 teams with 156 of 10^th      5 teams within 156 of 10th 3 teams with 156 of 10^th                      3 teams within 156 of 10th

 

JULY PERFORMANCE  (4 Races:  Daytona #2, Chicago, New Hampshire #1, Pocono #2)

Driver                                     Pts            Start of Month       Month Finish                     Spots Gained/Lost

1—Tony Stewart                  681                          4                              2                                              +2

2—Rusty Wallace                 604                          6                              4                                              +2

3—Jimmie Johnson            571                          2                              1                                              +1

4—Kurt Busch                      559                          8                              5                                              +3

5—Dale Earnhardt Jr.          555                          18                            14                                            +4

6—Ryan Newman                 513                          7                              6                                              +1

7—Matt Kenseth                  507                          20                            17                                            +3

8—Dale Jarrett                     502                          12                            10                                            +2

9—Ricky Rudd                      498                          30                            24                                            +6

10—Jeremy Mayfield          492                          11                            8                                              +3

10—Brian Vickers                492                          23                            22                                            +1

12—Bobby Labonte             489                          26                            23                                            +3

13—Mark Martin                  468                          5                              7                                              -2

14—Greg Biffle                     462                          1                              3                                              -2

15—Joe Nemechek             447                          17                            16                                            +1

16—Kevin Harvick                444                          13                            13                                            E

17—Jamie McMurray          440                          10                            11                                            -1

18—Jeff Gordon                   422                          14                            15                                            -1

19—Mike Bliss                     402                          33                            30                                            +3

20—Carl Edwards                397                          9                              12                                            -3

20—Kyle Busch                    397                          19                            20                                            -1

20—Kasey Kahne                 397                          21                            21                                            E

23—Ken Schrader                379                          28                            29                                            -1

24—Jeff Burton                    376                          16                            18                                            -2

25—Mike Wallace                 365                          35                            35                                            E

26—Kyle Petty                      347                          32                            31                                            +1

27—Casey Mears                339                          25                            25                                            E

28—Scott Wimmer              335                          34                            34                                            E

29—Dave Blaney                   334                          27                            28                                            -1

30—Jeff Green                     333                          31                            32                                            -1

31—Elliott Sadler                  318                          3                              9                                              -6

32—Sterling Marlin              309                          24                            26                                            -2

33—Michael Waltrip             295                          15                            19                                            -4

34—Scott Riggs                    265                          22                            27                                            -5

35—Travis Kvapil                 259                          29                            33                                            -4

 

JUNE PERFORMANCE (4 Races:  Dover #1, Pocono #1, Michigan #1, Infineon)

Driver                                     Pts.            Start of Month       Month Finish                    Spots Gained/Lost

1—Mark Martiin                   599                          12                            5                                              +7

2—Rusty Wallace                 584                          11                            6                                              +5

3—Greg Biffle                       574                          2                              1                                              +1

4—Tony Stewart                  564                          6                              4                                              +2

5—Kurt Busch                      537                          10                            8                                              +2

6—Michael Waltrip               532                          18                            15                                            +3

7—Elliott Sadler                    531                          3                              3                                              E

8—Kyle Busch                      516                          22                            19                                            +3

9—Carl Edwards                  504                          8                              9                                              -1

10—Matt Kenseth                503                          23                            20                                            +3

11—Joe Nemechek             496                          19                            17                                            +2

12—Jeremy Mayfield          485                          13                            11                                            +2

13—Jimmie Johnson          481                          1                              2                                              -1

14—Jamie McMurray          472                          9                              10                                            -1

15—Ryan Newman               464                          4                              7                                              -3

15—Dale Jarrett                   464                          14                            12                                            +2

17—Jeff Burton                    436                          17                            16                                            +1

18—Brian Vickers                431                          27                            23                                            +4

19—Travis Kvapil                 409                          33                            29                                            +4

20—Casey Mears                408                          28                            25                                            +3
21—Kevin Harvick                370                          7                              13                                            -6

22—Scott Riggs                    367                          21                            22                                            -1

23—Bobby Labonte             364                          24                            26                                            -2

24—Ricky Rudd                    361                          32                            30                                            +2

25—Dave Blaney                   328                          25                            27                                            -2

25—Scott Wimmer              328                          35                            34                                            +1

27—Jeff Gordon                   320                          5                              14                                            -9

28—Jeff Green                     316                          31                            31                                            E

29—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        310                          15                            18                                            -3

29—Sterling Marlin              310                          20                            24                                            -4

31—Kyle Petty                      306                          30                            32                                            -2

32—Ken Schrader                297                          26                            28                                            -2

33—Kasey Kahne                 289                          16                            21                                            -5

34—Mike Bliss                     295                          29                            33                                            -4

35—Mike Wallace                *188                          34                            35                                            -1

* Wallace missed the Infineon race

 

 

MAY PERFORMANCE (4 Races:  Talladega, Darlington, Richmond, Charlotte)

Driver                                     Pts.             Start of Month       Month Finish                   Spots Gained/Lost

1—Greg Biffle                       624                          3                              2                              +1

2—Tony Stewart                  575                          14                            6                              +8

3—Kasey Kahne                   541                          20                            16                            +4

4—Jamie McMurray            539                          15                            9                              +6

5—Ryan Newman                 536                          7                              4                              +3

6—Kevin Harvick                  534                          11                            7                              +4

7—Elliott Sadler                    533                          5                              3                              +2

8—Bobby Labonte               528                          34                            24                            +10

9—Jeremy Mayfield            513                          16                            13                            +3

10—Jeff Gordon                   489                          4                              5                              -1

11—Jimmie Johnson          487                          1                              1                              E

12—Carl Edwards                480                          8                              8                              E

13—Ken Schrader                472                          32                            26                            +6

14—Rusty Wallace               469                          10                            11                            -1

15—Dale Jarrett                   459                          13                            14                            -1

16—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        450                          12                            15                            -3

17—Jeff Burton                    446                          17                            17                            E

18—Joe Nemechek             433                          24                            19                            +5

19—Michael Waltrip             429                          18                            18                            E

20—Mark Martin                  426                          6                              12                            -6

21—Jeff Green                     406                          29                            31                            +2

22—Matt Kenseth                401                          28                            23                            +5

23—Ricky Rudd                    390                          31                            32                            -1

24—Kyle Busch                    387                          25                            22                            +3

25—Mike Wallace                 371                          36                            34                            +2

26—Kurt Busch                    354                          2                              10                            -8

27—Dave Blaney                   340                          21                            25                            -4

28—Travis Kvapil                 336                          30                            33                            -3

29—Scott Wimmer              334                          33                            35                            -2

30—Scott Riggs                    333                          19                            21                            -2

31—Mike Bliss                     331                          27                            29                            -2

32—Brian Vickers                319                          23                            27                            -4

33—Casey Mears                312                          26                            28                            -2

34—Kyle Petty                      299                          22                            30                            -8

35—Sterling Marlin              246                          9                              20                            -11

 

 

APRIL PERFORMANCE  (4 Races:  Bristol, Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix)

Driver                                     Pts.              Start of Month       Month Finish                  Spots Gained/Lost

1—Earnhardt Jr.                   582                          26                            12                            +14

2—Jimmie Johnson            580                          1                              1                              E

3—Jeff Gordon                     563                          12                            4                              +8

4—Sterling Marlin                530                          16                            9                              +7

5—Elliott Sadler                    527                          8                              5                              +3

6—Michael Waltrip               514                          27                            18                            +9

7—Kurt Busch                      510                          4                              2                              +2

8—Jeremy Mayfield            494                          21                            16                            +5

9—Dale Jarrett                     491                          15                            13                            +2

10—Rusty Wallace               483                          9                              10                            -1

11—Kevin Harvick                482                          11                            11                            E

12—Ryan Newman               479                          6                              7                              -1

13—Jeff Burton                    462                          20                            17                            +3

14—Kasey Kahne                 461                          28                            20                            +8

15—Mark Martin                  458                          5                              6                              -1

16—Greg Biffle                     454                          2                              3                              -1

17—Joe Nemechek             444                          29                            24                            +5

18—Jamie McMurray          437                          10                            15                            -5

18—Ricky Rudd                    437                          39                            31                            +8

20—Kyle Petty                      417                          24                            22                            +2

21—Scott Riggs                    415                          18                            19                            -1

22—Brian Vickers                406                          22                            23                            -1

22—Matt Kenseth                406                          31                            28                            +3

24—Tony Stewart                399                          7                              14                            -7

25—Carl Edwards                386                          3                              8                              -5

26—Kyle Busch                    372                          19                            25                            -6

27—Bobby Labonte             365                          37                            34                            +3

28—Casey Mears                357                          17                            26                            -9

29—Travis Kvapil                 344                          32                            30                            +2

30—Dave Blaney                   340                          14                            21                            -7

31—Ken Schrader                338                          33                            32                            +1

32—Mike Bliss                     307                          13                            27                            -14

32—Jeff Green                     307                          23                            29                            -6

32—Jason Leffler                307                          34                            35                            -1

35—Scott Wimmer              261                          25                            33                            -8