2005 RACE TO THE CHASE:  10 GO TO CALIFORNIA IN RANGE OF THE CHASE

 

The California Speedway should be sending thank you letters to Bristol Motor Speedway. Led by Matt “Lazarus” Kenseth climbing four spots to 11^th and within 11 points of The Chase by scoring a 190-point win at BMS, seven drivers outside the top 10 now find themselves within one race of the promised land, with two to go. Several pundits, and Kenseth himself, counted him out of the running before Bristol, but he’s in the hunt now, and how. Kenseth scored 629 points in August, second only to Tony Stewart’s 677, and now heads to California with a stout engine and a fired-up team.

 

WIDE OPEN:  10 FIGHTING FOR THREE SPOTS

8—Carl Edwards                  2849        9—Ryan Newman (-30), 10—Jeff Gordon (-50), 11—Matt Kenseth (-61), 12—Jamie McMurray (-62), 13—Elliott Sadler (-84),

14—Dale Jarrett (-128)

 

9—Ryan Newman                 2819        10—Jeff Gordon (-20), 11—Matt Kenseth (-31), 12—Jamie McMurray (-32), 13—Elliott Sadler (-54), 14—Dale Jarrett

                                                                (-98), 15—Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-137), 16—Kevin Harvick (-142)

 

10—Jeff Gordon                   2799        11—Matt Kenseth (-11), 12—Jamie McMurray (-12), 13—Elliott Sadler (-33), 14—Dale Jarrett (-77),  15—Dale

                                                                Earnhardt Jr. (-117), 16—Kevin Harvick (-122), 17—Joe Nemechek (-139).

 

CLINCH/NO CLINCH:  Congratulations to Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle on clinching a spot in The Chase at Bristol. Rusty Wallace has not clinched yet, despite some reports. You can only clinch if you need no more points to make 10^th place or better over the next two races.

 

CLINCH/ELIMINATION SCENARIOS (going into California #2)

Needed to Clinch:  191 point lead over 11^th place after California

Deficit Needed to Be Eliminated:  191 points out of 10^th place and 591 out of 1^st place after Bristol

 

Rank-Driver                           Current Spread    Gain Needed

1—Tony Stewart                  +617 over 11^th        CLINCHED at Michigan

2—Jimmie Johnson            +409 over 11^th        CLINCHED at Bristol

3—Greg Biffle                       +398 over 11^th        CLINCHED at Bristol

4—Rusty Wallace                 +351 over 11^th        Only needs to start at California to clinch

5—Mark Martin                    +226 over 11^th        Needs to lose 35 or less to 11^th place to clinch

6—Jeremy Mayfield            +195 over 11^th        Needs to lose 4 points or less to 11^th place to clinch

7—Kurt Busch                      +194 over 11^th        Needs to lose 3 points or less to 11^th placed to clinch

8—Carl Edwards                  +61 over 11^th          Needs to gain 130 points on 11^th to clinch

 

ELIMINATION:  14^th place Dale Jarrett through 21^st place Kasey Kahne are vulnerable to elimination at California. 22^nd place Kyle Busch on back have been eliminated.

 

 

THE HEAT INDEX

(Last 5 Races)

RED HOT                                                                                 ICE COLD

1—Tony Stewart                  823                                          1—Travis Kvapil                   299

2—Jeremy Mayfield            698                                          2—Kyle Busch                      347

3—Rusty Wallace                 697                                          3—Dave Blaney                     395

4—Mark Martin                    694                                          4—Scott Riggs                      410

5—Matt Kenseth                 684                                          5—Jeff Burton                      444

6—Brian Vickers                  674                                          6—Michael Waltrip               445

7—Jeff Gordon                     665                                          7—Ken Schrader                  452

8—Carl Edwards                  649                                          8—Kyle Petty                        457

9—Kurt Busch                      635                                          9—Bobby Labonte               460

10—Joe Nemechek             593                                          10—Dale Jarrett                   467

 

THE TURNAROUNDS

(Position in Race to the Chase Versus Last Year at this time)

GOOD TURNS                                                                                         BAD TURNS

Rank-Driver                           05            04            Diff.                         Rank-Driver                           05            04            Diff.

1—Rusty Wallace                 4              21            +17                          1—Bobby Labonte               24            9              -15

1—Carl Edwards                  8              24            +16                          2—Earnhardt Jr.                   15            3              -12

3—Greg Biffle                       3              18            +15                          3—Kasey Kahne                   21            11            -10

4—Joe Nemechek               17            25            +8                            3—Sterling Marli                  29            19            -10

5—Mark Martin                    5              12            +7                            5—Casey Mears                  25            16            -9

5—Jeremy Mayfield            6              13            +7

 

 

TOP 17  CONTENDERS (By Ownership, By Manufacturer)

BY OWNER

ROUSH (5)  --  3-Greg Biffle,  5—Mark Martin, 7—Kurt Busch,  8—Carl Edwards, 11—Matt Kenseth

PENSKE (2)  --  4-Rusty Wallace,  9-Ryan Newman

HENDRICK (2) --  2—Jimmie Johnson, 10—Jeff Gordon

YATES (2)  --  13—Elliott Sadler, 14—Dale Jarrett

GIBBS (1)  --  1—Tony Stewart

EVERNHAM (1)  --  6-Jeremy Mayfield

GANASSI (1)  --  12--Jamie McMurray

DEI (1) --  15—Dale Earnhardt Jr.

CHILDRESS (1)  --  16-Kevin Harvick

MB2 (1) --  17—Joe Nemechek

 

BY MANUFACTURER

FORD (7)  --  3-Greg Biffle,  5—Mark Martin, 7-Kurt Busch,  8-Carl Edwards,  11-Matt Kenseth, 13--Elliott Sadler, 14-Dale Jarrett

CHEVROLET (6)  --  1-Tony Stewart,  2-Jimmie Johnson,  10-Jeff Gordon, 15-Dale Earnhardt Jr., 16-Kevin Harvick, 17-Joe Nemechek

DODGE (4)  --  4-Rusty Wallace,  6-Jeremy Mayfield,  9-Ryan Newman,  12-Jamie McMurray

 

2005 RACE TO THE CHASE
After Race #24 of 26:  Bristol #2

Races Left to the Chase:  2 (8%)

 

05/LW/04                                Season  Out of     Out of     Out of     LastRce Gain        Last 5     Finishes                                Top         Top                Bottom   Bonus-

Driver                     Pts.         1^st            10^th          11^th          Fin/Pts    11^th          Pts/Gain 1—2—3                   5s            10s          10s          Penalty Pts

 

1/1/4-Stewart        3410        --            +611        +622        8/142       +5            823/+2     5—3—1                   11            16            0              95-0

2/2/2-Johnson       3197        -213         +398        +409        36/55       -82           525/-1      2—2—2                   9              15            4              70-25

3/3/18-Biffle           3186        -224         +387        +398        3/170       +33          591/-1      5—0—2                   8              13            3              95-0

4/4/21-RWallace     3139        -271         +340        +351        5/160       +23          697/E       0—1—0                   6              13            1              35-0

5/5/12-Martin         3014        -396         +215        +226        16/115     -22           694/+2     0—0—4                   6              12            1              35-0

6/6/13-Mayfield     2983        -427         +184        +195        18/114     -23           698/+2     1—0—0                   4              6              0              35-0

7/7/6-KuBusch       2982        -428         +183        +194        10/134     -3             635/-2      2—2—3                   7              13            5              75-0

8/9/NA-Edwards    2849        -561         +50          +61          24/91       -46           649/+4     2—0—1                   7              9              3              30-0

9/8/10-Newman     2819        -591         +20          +31          39/46       -91           472/-3      0—0—1                   5              10            4              65-0

10/12/1-JGordon   2799        -611         --             +11          6/155       +18          665/+5     3—1—0                   5              9              3              60-0

                                                                                                                Gain

                                                                                                                10th

11/15/5-Kenseth   2788        -622         -11           --             1/190       +93          684/+5     1—1—1                   5              9              3              60-0

12/10/15-McMurry2787        -623         -12           -1             26/85       -12           554/-1      0—1—0                   4              7              1              5-0

13/13/7-Sadler       2765        -645         -34           -23           13/129     +32          489/-4      0—1—0                   1              9              3              40-0

14/11/14-Jarrett    2721        -689         -78           -67           31/70       -27           467/-4      0—0—0                   3              5              2              10-0

15/16/3-ErnhrdtJr 2682        -728         -117         -106         9/138       +41          487/-2      1—0—2                   5              10            3              20-0

16/14/8-Harvick     2677        -733         -122         -111         37/57       -40           526/-2      1—0—0                   3              6              2              40-25

17/17/25-Nemchk  2660        -750         -139         -128         12/127     +30          593/+1     0—1—1                   1              6              2              45-0

18/18/24-Vickers  2590        -820         -209         -198         20/103     +6            674/+4     0—1—1                   4              8              6              45-0

19/21/20-JBurton  2529        -881         -270         -259         2/170       +73          444/-2      0—1—1                   2              3              3              5-0

20/20/17-Waltrip    2482        -928         -317         -306         15/118     +21          445/E       0—1—1                   3              7              7              45-0

21/19/11-Kahne     2442        -968         -357         -346         42/37       -60           487/E       1—2—1                   6              6              7              45-0

22/22/NA-KyBsch  2393        -1017       -406         -395         33/64       -33           347/-3      0—2—0                   5              8              6              25-25

23/25/27-Rudd       2329        -1081       -470         -459         4/160       +63          555/+1     0—1—0                   2              6              5              10-0

24/24/9-BLabonte 2314        -1096       -485         -474         21/105     +8            460/-1      0—1—1                   2              5              8              20-0

25/23/16-Mears     2278        -1132       -521         -510         34/61       -36           534/+2     0—1—0                   1              4              5              15-0

26/28/NA-Bliss       2213        -1197       -586         -575         7/151       +54          556/+5     0—0—0                   0              2              8              5-0

27/26/29-Riggs      2158        -1252       -641         -630         40/43       -54           410/-1      0—1—0                   2              4              5              15-0

28/31/32-Schrader2156        -1254       -643         -632         11/130     +8            452/E       0—0—0                   0              3              5              30-0

29/27/19-Marlin     2152        -1258       -647         -636         29/76       -21           NA/-4       0—0—0                   1              4              6              30-0

30/30/31-JGreen   2139        -1271       -660         -649         22/97       E             503/+2     0—0—0                   0              0              3              15-0

31/29/33-Petty       2132        -1278       -667         -656         25/88       -9             457/-1      0—0—0                   0              1              3              50-0

32/32/36-Blaney     2098        -1312       -701         -690         23/94       -3             395/-3      0—0—0                   0              1              5              10-0

33/33/26-Wimmer 2032        -1378       -767         -756         12/121     +24          493/+1     0—0—0                   0              0              4              25-0

34/34/NA-Kvapil     1922        -1488       -877         -866         19/106     +9            299/-1      0—0—0                   0              1              6              10-0

 

 

LEADER PACE

(The likelihood of the 400-point Wild Card will be determined by the pace set by the leader after 26 races. Here is the pace after 24 races)

 

2005                                        2004                                        *2003                                                       *2002

1 T Stewart           3410        1 J Gordon       3380             1 M Kenseth    3592                             1 S Marlin              3240

10 J Gordon          -611         10 R Newman   -462             10 R Gordon     -757                              10 D Jarrett           -376

4 teams within 400 pts       6 teams within 400              1 team within 400                                9 teams within 400

7 teams with 156 of 10^th      5 teams within 156 of 10th 3 teams with 156 of 10^th                      3 teams within 156 of 10th

 

AUGUST PERFORMANCE (4 Races: Indy, Watkins Glen, Michigan #2, Bristol #2)

Driver                                     Pts            Start of Month       Month Finish                     Spots Gained/Lost

1—Tony Stewart                  677                          2                              1                                              +1

2—Matt Kenseth                  629                          17                            11                                            +6

3—Jeremy Mayfield            589                          8                              6                                              +2

4—Brian Vickers                  553                          22                            18                                            +4

5—Jeff Gordon                     541                          15                            10                                            +5

6—Mark Martin                    524                          7                              5                                              +2

7—Rusty Wallace                 522                          4                              4                                              E

8—Joe Nemechek               491                          16                            17                                            -1

9—Carl Edwards                  489                          12                            8                                              +4

10—Greg Biffle                     474                          3                              3                                              E

11—Kurt Busch                    445                          5                              7                                              -2

12—Casey Mears                431                          25                            25                                            E

13—Jamie McMurray          424                          11                            12                                            -1

14—Ricky Rudd                    421                          24                            23                                            +1

15—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        420                          14                            15                                            -1

16—Mike Bliss                     418                          30                            26                                            +4

17—Kasey Kahne                 405                          21                            21                                            E

17—Scott Wimmer              405                          34                            33                                            +1

19—Jimmie Johnson          398                          1                              2                                              -1

20—Jeff Green                     397                          32                            30                                            +2

21—Jeff Burton                    392                          18                            19                                            -1

22—Kyle Petty                      384                          31                            31                                            E

23—Ken Schrader                382                          29                            28                                            +1

24—Kevin Harvick                376                          13                            16                                            -3

25—Elliott Sadler                  374                          9                              13                                            -4

26—Michael Waltrip             360                          19                            20                                            -1

27—Dale Jarrett                   349                          10                            14                                            -4

28—Scott Riggs                    346                          27                            27                                            E

29—Bobby Labonte             318                          23                            24                                            -1

30—Ryan Newman               312                          6                              9                                              -3

31—Kyle Busch                    301                          20                            22                                            -2

32—Dave Blaney                   295                          28                            32                                            -4

33—Travis Kvapil                 250                          33                            34                                            -1

 

 

JULY PERFORMANCE  (4 Races:  Daytona #2, Chicago, New Hampshire #1, Pocono #2)

Driver                                     Pts            Start of Month       Month Finish                     Spots Gained/Lost

1—Tony Stewart                  681                          4                              2                                              +2

2—Rusty Wallace                 604                          6                              4                                              +2

3—Jimmie Johnson            571                          2                              1                                              +1

4—Kurt Busch                      559                          8                              5                                              +3

5—Dale Earnhardt Jr.          555                          18                            14                                            +4

6—Ryan Newman                 513                          7                              6                                              +1

7—Matt Kenseth                  507                          20                            17                                            +3

8—Dale Jarrett                     502                          12                            10                                            +2

9—Ricky Rudd                      498                          30                            24                                            +6

10—Jeremy Mayfield          492                          11                            8                                              +3

10—Brian Vickers                492                          23                            22                                            +1

12—Bobby Labonte             489                          26                            23                                            +3

13—Mark Martin                  468                          5                              7                                              -2

14—Greg Biffle                     462                          1                              3                                              -2

15—Joe Nemechek             447                          17                            16                                            +1

16—Kevin Harvick                444                          13                            13                                            E

17—Jamie McMurray          440                          10                            11                                            -1

18—Jeff Gordon                   422                          14                            15                                            -1

19—Mike Bliss                     402                          33                            30                                            +3

20—Carl Edwards                397                          9                              12                                            -3

20—Kyle Busch                    397                          19                            20                                            -1

20—Kasey Kahne                 397                          21                            21                                            E

23—Ken Schrader                379                          28                            29                                            -1

24—Jeff Burton                    376                          16                            18                                            -2

25—Mike Wallace                 365                          35                            35                                            E

26—Kyle Petty                      347                          32                            31                                            +1

27—Casey Mears                339                          25                            25                                            E

28—Scott Wimmer              335                          34                            34                                            E

29—Dave Blaney                   334                          27                            28                                            -1

30—Jeff Green                     333                          31                            32                                            -1

31—Elliott Sadler                  318                          3                              9                                              -6

32—Sterling Marlin              309                          24                            26                                            -2

33—Michael Waltrip             295                          15                            19                                            -4

34—Scott Riggs                    265                          22                            27                                            -5

35—Travis Kvapil                 259                          29                            33                                            -4

 

 

 

JUNE PERFORMANCE (4 Races:  Dover #1, Pocono #1, Michigan #1, Infineon)

Driver                                     Pts.            Start of Month       Month Finish                    Spots Gained/Lost

1—Mark Martiin                   599                          12                            5                                              +7

2—Rusty Wallace                 584                          11                            6                                              +5

3—Greg Biffle                       574                          2                              1                                              +1

4—Tony Stewart                  564                          6                              4                                              +2

5—Kurt Busch                      537                          10                            8                                              +2

6—Michael Waltrip               532                          18                            15                                            +3

7—Elliott Sadler                    531                          3                              3                                              E

8—Kyle Busch                      516                          22                            19                                            +3

9—Carl Edwards                  504                          8                              9                                              -1

10—Matt Kenseth                503                          23                            20                                            +3

11—Joe Nemechek             496                          19                            17                                            +2

12—Jeremy Mayfield          485                          13                            11                                            +2

13—Jimmie Johnson          481                          1                              2                                              -1

14—Jamie McMurray          472                          9                              10                                            -1

15—Ryan Newman               464                          4                              7                                              -3

15—Dale Jarrett                   464                          14                            12                                            +2

17—Jeff Burton                    436                          17                            16                                            +1

18—Brian Vickers                431                          27                            23                                            +4

19—Travis Kvapil                 409                          33                            29                                            +4

20—Casey Mears                408                          28                            25                                            +3
21—Kevin Harvick                370                          7                              13                                            -6

22—Scott Riggs                    367                          21                            22                                            -1

23—Bobby Labonte             364                          24                            26                                            -2

24—Ricky Rudd                    361                          32                            30                                            +2

25—Dave Blaney                   328                          25                            27                                            -2

25—Scott Wimmer              328                          35                            34                                            +1

27—Jeff Gordon                   320                          5                              14                                            -9

28—Jeff Green                     316                          31                            31                                            E

29—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        310                          15                            18                                            -3

29—Sterling Marlin              310                          20                            24                                            -4

31—Kyle Petty                      306                          30                            32                                            -2

32—Ken Schrader                297                          26                            28                                            -2

33—Kasey Kahne                 289                          16                            21                                            -5

34—Mike Bliss                     295                          29                            33                                            -4

35—Mike Wallace                *188                          34                            35                                            -1

* Wallace missed the Infineon race

 

 

 

MAY PERFORMANCE (4 Races:  Talladega, Darlington, Richmond, Charlotte)

Driver                                     Pts.             Start of Month       Month Finish                   Spots Gained/Lost

1—Greg Biffle                       624                          3                              2                              +1

2—Tony Stewart                  575                          14                            6                              +8

3—Kasey Kahne                   541                          20                            16                            +4

4—Jamie McMurray            539                          15                            9                              +6

5—Ryan Newman                 536                          7                              4                              +3

6—Kevin Harvick                  534                          11                            7                              +4

7—Elliott Sadler                    533                          5                              3                              +2

8—Bobby Labonte               528                          34                            24                            +10

9—Jeremy Mayfield            513                          16                            13                            +3

10—Jeff Gordon                   489                          4                              5                              -1

11—Jimmie Johnson          487                          1                              1                              E

12—Carl Edwards                480                          8                              8                              E

13—Ken Schrader                472                          32                            26                            +6

14—Rusty Wallace               469                          10                            11                            -1

15—Dale Jarrett                   459                          13                            14                            -1

16—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        450                          12                            15                            -3

17—Jeff Burton                    446                          17                            17                            E

18—Joe Nemechek             433                          24                            19                            +5

19—Michael Waltrip             429                          18                            18                            E

20—Mark Martin                  426                          6                              12                            -6

21—Jeff Green                     406                          29                            31                            +2

22—Matt Kenseth                401                          28                            23                            +5

23—Ricky Rudd                    390                          31                            32                            -1

24—Kyle Busch                    387                          25                            22                            +3

25—Mike Wallace                 371                          36                            34                            +2

26—Kurt Busch                    354                          2                              10                            -8

27—Dave Blaney                   340                          21                            25                            -4

28—Travis Kvapil                 336                          30                            33                            -3

29—Scott Wimmer              334                          33                            35                            -2

30—Scott Riggs                    333                          19                            21                            -2

31—Mike Bliss                     331                          27                            29                            -2

32—Brian Vickers                319                          23                            27                            -4

33—Casey Mears                312                          26                            28                            -2

34—Kyle Petty                      299                          22                            30                            -8

35—Sterling Marlin              246                          9                              20                            -11

 

 

APRIL PERFORMANCE  (4 Races:  Bristol, Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix)

Driver                                     Pts.              Start of Month       Month Finish                  Spots Gained/Lost

1—Earnhardt Jr.                   582                          26                            12                            +14

2—Jimmie Johnson            580                          1                              1                              E

3—Jeff Gordon                     563                          12                            4                              +8

4—Sterling Marlin                530                          16                            9                              +7

5—Elliott Sadler                    527                          8                              5                              +3

6—Michael Waltrip               514                          27                            18                            +9

7—Kurt Busch                      510                          4                              2                              +2

8—Jeremy Mayfield            494                          21                            16                            +5

9—Dale Jarrett                     491                          15                            13                            +2

10—Rusty Wallace               483                          9                              10                            -1

11—Kevin Harvick                482                          11                            11                            E

12—Ryan Newman               479                          6                              7                              -1

13—Jeff Burton                    462                          20                            17                            +3

14—Kasey Kahne                 461                          28                            20                            +8

15—Mark Martin                  458                          5                              6                              -1

16—Greg Biffle                     454                          2                              3                              -1

17—Joe Nemechek             444                          29                            24                            +5

18—Jamie McMurray          437                          10                            15                            -5

18—Ricky Rudd                    437                          39                            31                            +8

20—Kyle Petty                      417                          24                            22                            +2

21—Scott Riggs                    415                          18                            19                            -1

22—Brian Vickers                406                          22                            23                            -1

22—Matt Kenseth                406                          31                            28                            +3

24—Tony Stewart                399                          7                              14                            -7

25—Carl Edwards                386                          3                              8                              -5

26—Kyle Busch                    372                          19                            25                            -6

27—Bobby Labonte             365                          37                            34                            +3

28—Casey Mears                357                          17                            26                            -9

29—Travis Kvapil                 344                          32                            30                            +2

30—Dave Blaney                   340                          14                            21                            -7

31—Ken Schrader                338                          33                            32                            +1

32—Mike Bliss                     307                          13                            27                            -14

32—Jeff Green                     307                          23                            29                            -6

32—Jason Leffler                307                          34                            35                            -1

35—Scott Wimmer              261                          25                            33                            -8