2005 RACE TO THE CHASE:  NOT SO FAST

 

After a tough finish at Indy, a Chase for the Nextel Cup contender dejectedly got out of his car and pronounced himself out of contention for the Chase.

DALE EARNHARDT JR. at Indy on Sunday? No, MARK MARTIN last season after finishing 25^th and falling to 15^th in the standings, 123 points out of 10^th place.

It’s easy to predict that EARNHARDT JR. won’t make it, but it is entirely premature to say definitively that he CAN’T make it. Consider the facts:

 

·          It took 3186 points to make The Chase in 2004, which was RYAN NEWMAN’s point total.  After Indy last year, Newman stood in 10^th at 2542 points.  CARL EDWARDS is 10^th now, 55 points behind Newman’s pace of a year ago. So, just for giggles, let’s assume it will take 55 points less than last year to make 10^th place. Thus, here’s the path for the current contenders to reach 3131 points over the next five races.

 

Need to

Reach    

Pos.-Driver                                    Pts.         3131

 

16—DALE EARNHARDT JR.          2296        835

15—MATT KENSETH                     2319        812

14—JEFF GORDON                        2400        731

13—KEVIN HARVICK                     2405        726

12—ELLIOTT SADLER                  2463        668

11—JAMIE MCMURRAY               2475        656

10—CARL EDWARDS                    2487        644

9—DALE JARRETT                        2493        638

8—JEREMY MAYFIELD                 2554        577

7—RYAN NEWMAN                        2568        563

6—MARK MARTIN                         2636        495

5—KURT BUSCH                            2646        485

4—RUSTY WALLACE                    2705        426

 

Here’s Junior’s pathway to 10^th place:

Watkins Glen                                5^th            155 points

Michigan                        5^th            155 points

Bristol                            1^st            190 points

California                       5^th            155 points

Richmond                      1^st            155 points

                                         TOTAL   845 POINTS

 

 

THE HEAT INDEX

(Last 5 Races)

RED HOT                                                                 ICE COLD

1—Tony Stewart                  871                                          1—Travis Kvapil                   311

2—Rusty Wallace                 692                                          2—Scott Riggs                      323

3—Kurt Busch                      668                                          3—Elliott Sadler                    390

4—Matt Kenseth                  667                                          4—Dave Blaney                     407

5—Brian Vickers                  662                                          5—Michael Waltrip               410

6—Jeremy Mayfield            652                                          6—Scott Wimmer                425

7—Jamie McMurray            635                                          7—Sterling Marlin                447

8—Dale Jarrett                     623                                          8—Jeff Green                       451

9—Jimmie Johnson            620                                          9—Ken Schrader                  476

10—Mark Martin                  614                                          9—Kyle Petty                        476

 

THE TURNAROUNDS

(Position in Race to the Chase Versus Last Year at this time)

GOOD TURNS                                                                                         BAD TURNS

Rank-Driver                           05            04            Diff.                         Rank-Driver                           05            04            Diff.

1—Greg Biffle                       3              21            +18                          1—Bobby Labonte               23            8              -15

2—Carl Edwards                  10            24            +14                          2—Earnhardt Jr.                   16            3              -13

3—Rusty Wallace                 4              17            +13                          3—Jeff Gordon                     14            2              -12

4—Mark Martin                    6              15            +9                            4—Matt Kenseth                 15            5              -10

5—Jeff Burton                      18            24            +6                            4—Kasey Kahne                   21            11            -10

 

THE TOP 15 CONTENDERS (By Ownership, By Manufacturer)

BY OWNER

ROUSH (5)  --  3-Greg Biffle,  5—Kurt Busch,  6—Mark Martin,  10-Carl Edwards, 15-Matt Kenseth

PENSKE (2)  --  4-Rusty Wallace,  7-Ryan Newman

YATES (2)  --  9—Dale Jarrett,  12—Elliott Sadler

HENDRICK (2)  --  2—Jimmie Johnson,  14-Jeff Gordon

GIBBS (1)  --  1—Tony Stewart

EVERNHAM (1)  --  8-Jeremy Mayfield

GANASSI (1)  --  11-Jamie McMurray

CHILDRESS (1)  --  13-Kevin Harvick

 

BY MANUFACTURER

FORD (7)  --  3-Greg Biffle,  5—Kurt Busch,  6-Mark Martin,  9-Dale Jarrett,  10-Carl Edwards,  12-Elliott Sadler, 15-Matt Kenseth

CHEVROLET (4)  --  1-Tony Stewart,  2-Jimmie Johnson,  13-Kevin Harvick,  14-Jeff Gordon

DODGE (4)  --  4-Rusty Wallace,  7-Ryan Newman,  8-Jeremy Mayfield,  11-Jamie McMurray

 

 

2005 RACE TO THE CHASE
After Race #21 of 26:  Indy

Races Left to the Chase:  5 (19%)

 

05/LW/04                                Season  Out of     Out of     Out of     LastRce Gain        Last 5     Finishes                                Top         Top                Bottom   Bonus-

Driver                     Pts.         1^st            10^th          11^th          Fin/Pts    11^th          Pts/Gain 1—2—3                   5s            10s          10s          Penalty Pts

 

1/2/4-Stewart        2923        --            +436        +448        1/190       +78          871/+3     4—3—1                   9              13            0              85-0

2/1/1-Johnson       2848        -75           +361        +373        38/49       -63           620/E       2—2—2                   8              13            3              65-25

3/3/21-Biffle           2812        -111         +325        +337        21/100     -12           562/-2      5—0—1                   7              11            2              85-0

4/4/17-RWallace     2705        -218         +218        +230        25/88       -24           692/+2     0—1—0                   5              11            1              30-0

5/5/7-KBusch         2646        -277         +159        +171        18/109     -3             668/+3     2—2—3                   7              11            4              65-0

6/7/15-Martin         2636        -287         +149        +161        7/146       +34          614/-1      0—0—4                   6              11            1              30-0

7/6/10-Newman     2568        -355         +81          +93          34/61       -51           574/E       0—0—1                   5              10            3              60-0

8/8/12-Mayfield     2554        -369         +67          +79          4/160       +48          652/+3     0—0—0                   3              5              0              25-0

9/10/13-Jarrett      2493        -430         +6            +18          14/121     -10           623/+3     0—0—0                   3              5              1              10-0

10/12/NA-Edwards2487        -436         --             +12          12/127     +15          524/-1      2—0—1                   6              8              3              25-0

                                                                                                                Gain

                                                                                                                10th

11/11/14-McMurry2475        -448         -12           --             17/112     -3             635/-1      0—1—0                   4              7              1              5-0

12/9/6-Sadler         2463        -460         -24           -12           32/72       -43           390/-9      0—1—0                   1              9              2              35-0

13/13/9-Harvick     2405        -518         -82           -70           19/106     -9             550/E       1—0—0                   3              6              1              35-25

14/15/2-Gordon     2400        -523         -87           -75           8/142       +27          564/E       3—1—0                   5              8              3              50-0

15/17/5-Kenseth  2319        -604         -168         -156         5/160       +45          667/+5     0—1—0                   3              7              3              45-0

16/14/3-ErnhrdtJr 2296        -627         -191         -179         43/34       -81           589/+2     1—0—2                   5              8              3              15-0

17/16/17-Nemchk  2248        -675         -239         -227         28/79       -36           526/E       0—1—1                   1              4              2              40-0

18/18/24-JBurton  2240        -683         -247         -235         20/103     -12           479/-2      0—0—1                   1              2              2              5-0

19/19/18-Waltrip    2237        -686         -250         -238         16/115       E            410/-4      0—1—1                   3              7              6              40-0

20/20/NA-KyBusch2226        -697         -261         -249         10/134     +19          531/-1      0—2—0                   5              8              5              20-25

21/21/11-Kahne     2212        -711         -275         -263         2/175       +60          572/E       1—2—1                   6              6              6              40-0

22/22/22-Vickers  2207        -716         -280         -268         3/170       +55          662/+1     0—1—1                   4              6              6              45-0

23/23/8-BLabonte 2039        -884         -448         -436         40/43       -72           532/+3     0—1—1                   2              5              7              15-0

24/25/16-Mears     2002        -921         -485         -473         6/155       +37          494/+1     0—1—0                   1              4              4              15-0

25/26/19-Marlin     1971        -952         -516         -504         9/138       +23          447/-1      0—0—0                   1              4              6              25-0

26/24/28-Rudd       1948        -975         -539         -527         41/40       -75           538/+4     0—1—0                   1              5              5              10-0

27/30/NA-Bliss       1925        -998         -562         -550         11/130     +15          532/+6     0—0—0                   0              1              7              0-0

28/29/31-Schrader1896        -1027       -591         -579         22/97       -18           476/E       0—0—0                   0              3              5              30-0

29/31/32-Petty       1877        -1046       -610         -598         13/129     +14          476/+3     0—0—0                   0              1              3              50-0

30/28/NA-Blaney    1876        -1047       -611         -599         30/73       -39           407/-3      0—0—0                   0              1              4              10-0

31/27/30-Riggs      1870        -1053       -617         -605         35/58       -57           323/-9      0—0—0                   1              3              4              10-0

32/32/34-JGreen  1860        -1063       -627         -615         15/118     +3            451/-3      0—0—0                   0              0              3              15-0

33/33/NA-Kvapil     1724        -1199       -763         -751         37/52       -63           311/-4      0—0—0                   0              1              4              10-0

34/34/26-Wimmer 1717        -1206       -770         -758         26/90       -35           425/E       0—0—0                   0              0              4              25-0

 

 

LEADER PACE

(The likelihood of the 400-point Wild Card will be determined by the pace set by the leader after 26 races. Here is the pace after 21 races)

 

2005                                        2004                                        *2003                                                       *2002

1 T Stewart           2923        1 J Johnson      3095            1 M Kenseth    3152                             1 S Marlin              2866

10 C Edwards       -436         10 R Newman    -553            10 R Wallace    -685                               10 K Busch            -286

8 teams within 400 pts       5 teams within 400              3 teams within 400                              17 teams within 400

4 teams with 156 of 10^th      5 teams within 156 of 10th 6 teams with 156 of 10^th                      2 teams within 156 of 10th

 

JULY PERFORMANCE  (4 Races:  Daytona #2, Chicago, New Hampshire #1, Pocono #2)

Driver                                     Pts            Start of Month       Month Finish                     Spots Gained/Lost

1—Tony Stewart                  681                          4                              2                                              +2

2—Rusty Wallace                 604                          6                              4                                              +2

3—Jimmie Johnson            571                          2                              1                                              +1

4—Kurt Busch                      559                          8                              5                                              +3

5—Dale Earnhardt Jr.          555                          18                            14                                            +4

6—Ryan Newman                 513                          7                              6                                              +1

7—Matt Kenseth                  507                          20                            17                                            +3

8—Dale Jarrett                     502                          12                            10                                            +2

9—Ricky Rudd                      498                          30                            24                                            +6

10—Jeremy Mayfield          492                          11                            8                                              +3

10—Brian Vickers                492                          23                            22                                            +1

12—Bobby Labonte             489                          26                            23                                            +3

13—Mark Martin                  468                          5                              7                                              -2

14—Greg Biffle                     462                          1                              3                                              -2

15—Joe Nemechek             447                          17                            16                                            +1

16—Kevin Harvick                444                          13                            13                                            E

17—Jamie McMurray          440                          10                            11                                            -1

18—Jeff Gordon                   422                          14                            15                                            -1

19—Mike Bliss                     402                          33                            30                                            +3

20—Carl Edwards                397                          9                              12                                            -3

20—Kyle Busch                    397                          19                            20                                            -1

20—Kasey Kahne                 397                          21                            21                                            E

23—Ken Schrader                379                          28                            29                                            -1

24—Jeff Burton                    376                          16                            18                                            -2

25—Mike Wallace                 365                          35                            35                                            E

26—Kyle Petty                      347                          32                            31                                            +1

27—Casey Mears                339                          25                            25                                            E

28—Scott Wimmer              335                          34                            34                                            E

29—Dave Blaney                   334                          27                            28                                            -1

30—Jeff Green                     333                          31                            32                                            -1

31—Elliott Sadler                  318                          3                              9                                              -6

32—Sterling Marlin              309                          24                            26                                            -2

33—Michael Waltrip             295                          15                            19                                            -4

34—Scott Riggs                    265                          22                            27                                            -5

35—Travis Kvapil                 259                          29                            33                                            -4

 

JUNE PERFORMANCE (4 Races:  Dover #1, Pocono #1, Michigan #1, Infineon)

Driver                                     Pts.            Start of Month       Month Finish                    Spots Gained/Lost

1—Mark Martiin                   599                          12                            5                                              +7

2—Rusty Wallace                 584                          11                            6                                              +5

3—Greg Biffle                       574                          2                              1                                              +1

4—Tony Stewart                  564                          6                              4                                              +2

5—Kurt Busch                      537                          10                            8                                              +2

6—Michael Waltrip               532                          18                            15                                            +3

7—Elliott Sadler                    531                          3                              3                                              E

8—Kyle Busch                      516                          22                            19                                            +3

9—Carl Edwards                  504                          8                              9                                              -1

10—Matt Kenseth                503                          23                            20                                            +3

11—Joe Nemechek             496                          19                            17                                            +2

12—Jeremy Mayfield          485                          13                            11                                            +2

13—Jimmie Johnson          481                          1                              2                                              -1

14—Jamie McMurray          472                          9                              10                                            -1

15—Ryan Newman               464                          4                              7                                              -3

15—Dale Jarrett                   464                          14                            12                                            +2

17—Jeff Burton                    436                          17                            16                                            +1

18—Brian Vickers                431                          27                            23                                            +4

19—Travis Kvapil                 409                          33                            29                                            +4

20—Casey Mears                408                          28                            25                                            +3
21—Kevin Harvick                370                          7                              13                                            -6

22—Scott Riggs                    367                          21                            22                                            -1

23—Bobby Labonte             364                          24                            26                                            -2

24—Ricky Rudd                    361                          32                            30                                            +2

25—Dave Blaney                   328                          25                            27                                            -2

25—Scott Wimmer              328                          35                            34                                            +1

27—Jeff Gordon                   320                          5                              14                                            -9

28—Jeff Green                     316                          31                            31                                            E

29—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        310                          15                            18                                            -3

29—Sterling Marlin              310                          20                            24                                            -4

31—Kyle Petty                      306                          30                            32                                            -2

32—Ken Schrader                297                          26                            28                                            -2

33—Kasey Kahne                 289                          16                            21                                            -5

34—Mike Bliss                     295                          29                            33                                            -4

35—Mike Wallace                *188                          34                            35                                            -1

* Wallace missed the Infineon race

 

 

MAY PERFORMANCE (4 Races:  Talladega, Darlington, Richmond, Charlotte)

Driver                                     Pts.             Start of Month       Month Finish                   Spots Gained/Lost

1—Greg Biffle                       624                          3                              2                              +1

2—Tony Stewart                  575                          14                            6                              +8

3—Kasey Kahne                   541                          20                            16                            +4

4—Jamie McMurray            539                          15                            9                              +6

5—Ryan Newman                 536                          7                              4                              +3

6—Kevin Harvick                  534                          11                            7                              +4

7—Elliott Sadler                    533                          5                              3                              +2

8—Bobby Labonte               528                          34                            24                            +10

9—Jeremy Mayfield            513                          16                            13                            +3

10—Jeff Gordon                   489                          4                              5                              -1

11—Jimmie Johnson          487                          1                              1                              E

12—Carl Edwards                480                          8                              8                              E

13—Ken Schrader                472                          32                            26                            +6

14—Rusty Wallace               469                          10                            11                            -1

15—Dale Jarrett                   459                          13                            14                            -1

16—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        450                          12                            15                            -3

17—Jeff Burton                    446                          17                            17                            E

18—Joe Nemechek             433                          24                            19                            +5

19—Michael Waltrip             429                          18                            18                            E

20—Mark Martin                  426                          6                              12                            -6

21—Jeff Green                     406                          29                            31                            +2

22—Matt Kenseth                401                          28                            23                            +5

23—Ricky Rudd                    390                          31                            32                            -1

24—Kyle Busch                    387                          25                            22                            +3

25—Mike Wallace                 371                          36                            34                            +2

26—Kurt Busch                    354                          2                              10                            -8

27—Dave Blaney                   340                          21                            25                            -4

28—Travis Kvapil                 336                          30                            33                            -3

29—Scott Wimmer              334                          33                            35                            -2

30—Scott Riggs                    333                          19                            21                            -2

31—Mike Bliss                     331                          27                            29                            -2

32—Brian Vickers                319                          23                            27                            -4

33—Casey Mears                312                          26                            28                            -2

34—Kyle Petty                      299                          22                            30                            -8

35—Sterling Marlin              246                          9                              20                            -11

 

 

APRIL PERFORMANCE  (4 Races:  Bristol, Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix)

Driver                                     Pts.              Start of Month       Month Finish                  Spots Gained/Lost

1—Earnhardt Jr.                   582                          26                            12                            +14

2—Jimmie Johnson            580                          1                              1                              E

3—Jeff Gordon                     563                          12                            4                              +8

4—Sterling Marlin                530                          16                            9                              +7

5—Elliott Sadler                    527                          8                              5                              +3

6—Michael Waltrip               514                          27                            18                            +9

7—Kurt Busch                      510                          4                              2                              +2

8—Jeremy Mayfield            494                          21                            16                            +5

9—Dale Jarrett                     491                          15                            13                            +2

10—Rusty Wallace               483                          9                              10                            -1

11—Kevin Harvick                482                          11                            11                            E

12—Ryan Newman               479                          6                              7                              -1

13—Jeff Burton                    462                          20                            17                            +3

14—Kasey Kahne                 461                          28                            20                            +8

15—Mark Martin                  458                          5                              6                              -1

16—Greg Biffle                     454                          2                              3                              -1

17—Joe Nemechek             444                          29                            24                            +5

18—Jamie McMurray          437                          10                            15                            -5

18—Ricky Rudd                    437                          39                            31                            +8

20—Kyle Petty                      417                          24                            22                            +2

21—Scott Riggs                    415                          18                            19                            -1

22—Brian Vickers                406                          22                            23                            -1

22—Matt Kenseth                406                          31                            28                            +3

24—Tony Stewart                399                          7                              14                            -7

25—Carl Edwards                386                          3                              8                              -5

26—Kyle Busch                    372                          19                            25                            -6

27—Bobby Labonte             365                          37                            34                            +3

28—Casey Mears                357                          17                            26                            -9

29—Travis Kvapil                 344                          32                            30                            +2

30—Dave Blaney                   340                          14                            21                            -7

31—Ken Schrader                338                          33                            32                            +1

32—Mike Bliss                     307                          13                            27                            -14

32—Jeff Green                     307                          23                            29                            -6

32—Jason Leffler                307                          34                            35                            -1

35—Scott Wimmer              261                          25                            33                            -8