2005 RACE TO THE CHASE:  STEWART’S HUGE RUN SOLIDIFIES HIM IN CHASE

 

TONY STEWART’s, the Nextel Cup’s hottest driver over the last five races, has solidified himself in The Race for The Chase, and shows signs of being a big factor in the fall.  The field is very tight from 6^th place all the way back to 13^th, and KEVIN HARVICK, JEFF BURTON, DALE EARNHARDT JR., AND MICHAEL WALTRIP are all still serious contenders in 14^th through 17^th.  Longer shots but still in it are JOE NEMECHEK, MATT KENSETH, KYLE BUSCH AND KASEY KAHNE.

 

Keep an eye on JIMMIE JOHNSON and the 400-point wild card range.  JOHNSON is currently 167 points behind last year’s pace after 17 races, but he has an opportunity to make up ground in August.

 

 

THE HEAT INDEX

(Last 5 Races)

RED HOT                                                                 ICE COLD

1—Tony Stewart                  754                                          1—Jeff Green                       377

2—Rusty Wallace                 744                                          2—Scott Wimmer                395

3—Mark Martin                    645                                          3—Mike Bliss                       398

4—Jamie McMurray            642                                          4—Sterling Marlin                407

5—Matt Kenseth                  641                                          4—Scott Riggs                      407

6—Elliott Sadler                    636                                          6—Kasey Kahne                   409

7—Jimmie Johnson            631                                          7—Dave Blaney                     410

8—Greg Biffle                       629                                          8—Kyle Petty                        412

9—Dale Jarrett                     624                                          9—Bobby Labonte               422

10—Joe Nemechek             614                                          10—Ken Schrader                431

 

 

THE TURNAROUNDS

(Position in Race to the Chase Versus Last Year at this time)

GOOD TURNS                                                                                         BAD TURNS

Rank-Driver                           05            04            Diff.                         Rank-Driver                           05            04            Diff.

1—Greg Biffle                       2              24            +22                          1—Bobby Labonte               25            6              -19

2—Rusty Wallace                 5              17            +12                          2—Dale Earnhardt Jr.          16            2              -14

3—Carl Edwards                  12            22            +10                          2—Matt Kenseth                  19            5              -14

4—Jeff Burton                      15            23            +8                            4—Jeff Gordon                     13            3              -10

4—Joe Nemechek               18            26            +8                            4—Kasey Kahne                   21            11            -10x

 

                                                                                                               

TREND PROJECTION

(Projecting standings after race #22, with four to go, based on last 5 race performance)

Rank-Driver                           Pts          Out          Out          Out

                                                                1^st            10^th          11^th         

1—Jimmie Johnson (1)      3009        --             +368        +390

2—Tony Stewart (3)            2996        -13           +355        +377

3—Greg Biffle (2)                 2934        -75           +293        +315

4—Rusty Wallace (5)            2917        -92           +276        +298

5—Elliott Sadler (4)              2814        -195         +173        +195

6—Jamie McMurray (7)      2735        -274         +94          +116

7—Mark Martin (8)               2713        -296         +72          +94

8—Ryan Newman (6)           2700        -309         +59          +81

9—Dale Jarrett (10)              2654        -355         +13          +35

10—Jeremy Mayfield (11)  2641        -368         --             +22

11—Kurt Busch (9)               2619        -390         -22           --

 

12—Carl Edwards (12)        2595        -414         -46           -24

13—Jeff Burton (15)            2457        -552         -184         -162

14—Joe Nemechek (18)     2454        -555         -187         -165

15—Jeff Gordon (13)           2448        -561         -193         -171

16—Michael Waltrip (17)     2445        -564         -196         -174

17—Matt Kenseth (19)        2431        -578         -210         -188

18—Kevin Harvick (14)        2407        -602         -234         -212

19—Kyle Busch (20)             2351        -658         -290         -268

20—Dale Earnhardt Jr. (16) 2347        -662         -294         -272

21—Kasey Kahne (21)         2169        -840         -472         -450

 

 

2005 RACE TO THE CHASE
After Race #17 of 26:  Daytona #2

Races Left to the Chase:  9 (35%)

 

05/LW/04                                Season  Out of     Out of     Out of     LastRce Gain        Last 5     Finishes                                Top         Top                Bottom   Bonus-

Driver                     Pts.         1^st            10^th          11^th          Fin/Pts    11^th          Pts/Gain 1—2—3                   5s            10s          10s          Penalty Pts

 

1/2/1-Johnson       2378        --            +348        +349        6/150       +23          631/+1     2—2—1                   7              12            2              60-25

2/1/24-Biffle           2305        -73           +275        +276        36/55       -72           629/E       5—0—1                   6              10            2              75-0

3/4/4-Stewart        2242        -136         +212        +213        1/190       +63          754/+3     2—3—1                   6              9              0              65-0

4/3/8-Sadler           2178        -200         +148        +149        21/105     -22           636/-1      0—1—0                   1              9              0              30-0

5/6/17-RWallace     2173        -205         +143        +144        4/160       +33          744/+6     0—0—0                   4              9              1              25-0

6/7/9-Newman       2115        -263         +85          +86          14/121     -6             585/-2      0—0—1                   4              8              2              45-0

7/10/13-McMurray2093        -285         +63          +64          2/170       +43          642/+2     0—1—0                   4              7              0              5-0

8/5/14-Martin         2068        -310         +38          +39          39/46       -81           645/+4     0—0—3                   5              8              1              25-0

9/8/7-KuBusch       2030        -348         +0            +1            37/52       -75           589/+1     1—1—3                   5              8              4              50-0

10/12/15-Jarrett    2030        -348         --             +1            5/160       +31          624/+4     0—0—0                   3              5              1              10-0

                                                                                                                Gain

                                                                                                                10th

11/11/12-Mayfield 2029        -349         -1             --             12/127     +20          612/+2     0—0—0                   2              3              0              25-0

12/9/22-Edwards   2027        -351         -3             -2             33/64       -43           568/-4      2—0—1                   5              7              2              25-0

13/14/3-JGordon   1982        -396         -48           -47           7/146       +39          466/-8      3—1—0                   5              7              3              50-0

 

14/13/10-Harvick   1946        -432         -84           -83           24/91       -16           461/-7      1—0—0                   3              5              1              35-0

15/16/23-JBurton 1891        -487         -139         -138         11/130     +23          566/+2     0—0—1                   1              2              1              5-0

16/18/2-ErnhrdtJr 1872        -506         -158         -157         3/165       +58          475/-1      0—0—2                   4              6              2              10-0

17/15/18-Waltrip    1870        -508         -160         -159         40/43       -64           575/+1     0—1—1                   3              7              5              40-0

18/17/26-Nemchek1840       -538         -190         -189         15/118     +11          614/+1     0—1—1                   1              4              2              35-0

19/20/5-Kenseth   1790        -588         -240         -239         9/138       +31          641/+4     0—0—0                   1              4              2              30-0

20/19/21-KyBusch 1765        -613         -265         -264         31/70       -37           586/+2     0—2—0                   4              6              4              20-25

21/21/11-Kahne    1760        -618         -270         -269         16/120     +13          409/-5      1—1—1                   4              4              5              30-0

22/23/19-Vickers  1621        -757         -409         -408         29/76       -31           507/+5     0—1—0                   2              4              6              35-0

23/24/20-Marlin     1621        -757         -409         -408         22/97       -10           407/-3      0—0—0                   1              3              5              20-0

24/22/30-Riggs      1587        -791         -443         -442         41/40       -67           407/-3      0—0—0                   1              3              3              10-0

25/26/6-BLabonte 1565        -813         -465         -464         35/58       -49           422/-1      0—1—0                   1              3              6              15-0

26/28/32-Schrade  1554        -824         -476         -475         10/134     +27          431/E       0—0—0                   0              3              5              25-0

27/27/25-Blaney     1548        -830         -482         -481         27/82       -15           410/-2      0—0—0                   0              1              3              10-0

28/25/16-Mears     1545        -833         -485         -484         43/34       -73           442/E       0—1—0                   1              2              4              15-0

29/30/28-Rudd       1534        -844         -496         -495         13/124     +17          485/+3     0—1—0                   1              3              4              10-0

30/29/30-Kvapil      1507        -871         -523         -522         23/94       -13           503/+3     0—0—0                   0              1              1              10-0

31/32/33-Petty       1507        -871         -523         -522         19/106     -1             412/-1      0—0—0                   0              1              3              35-0

32/33/26-Bliss        1496        -882         -534         -533         20/103     -4             398/-3      0—0—0                   0              0              6              0-0

33/31/34-JGreen   1470        -908         -560         -559         34/61       -46           377/-2      0—0—0                   0              0              3              10-0

34/34/26-Wimmer 1359        -1019       -671         -670         32/67       -40           395/+1     0—0—0                   0              0              3              10-0

35/35/36-MWallace1298        -1080       -732         -731         8/142       +35          330/-1      0—0—0                   0              1              4              25-0

 

LEADER PACE

(The likelihood of the 400-point Wild Card will be determined by the pace set by the leader after 26 races. Here is the pace after 17 races)

 

2005                                        2004                                        *2003                                                       *2002

1 J Johnson          2378        1 J Johnson      2545            1 M Kenseth    2551                             1 S Marlin              2368

10 D Jarrett           -348         10 K Harvick      -450             10 S Marlin      -553                               10 K Busch             -295

13 teams within 400 pts     8 teams within 400              4 teams within 400                              12 teams within 400

5 teams with 156 of 10^th      4 teams within 156 of 10th 5 teams with 156 of 10^th                      4 teams within 156 of 10th

·          Chase for the Nextel Cup format not in effect

 

JUNE PERFORMANCE (4 Races:  Dover #1, Pocono #1, Michigan #1, Infineon)

Driver                                     Pts.            Start of Month       Month Finish                    Spots Gained/Lost

1—Mark Martiin                   599                          12                            5                                              +7

2—Rusty Wallace                 584                          11                            6                                              +5

3—Greg Biffle                       574                          2                              1                                              +1

4—Tony Stewart                  564                          6                              4                                              +2

5—Kurt Busch                      537                          10                            8                                              +2

6—Michael Waltrip               532                          18                            15                                            +3

7—Elliott Sadler                    531                          3                              3                                              E

8—Kyle Busch                      516                          22                            19                                            +3

9—Carl Edwards                  504                          8                              9                                              -1

10—Matt Kenseth                503                          23                            20                                            +3

11—Joe Nemechek             496                          19                            17                                            +2

12—Jeremy Mayfield          485                          13                            11                                            +2

13—Jimmie Johnson          481                          1                              2                                              -1

14—Jamie McMurray          472                          9                              10                                            -1

15—Ryan Newman               464                          4                              7                                              -3

15—Dale Jarrett                   464                          14                            12                                            +2

17—Jeff Burton                    436                          17                            16                                            +1

18—Brian Vickers                431                          27                            23                                            +4

19—Travis Kvapil                 409                          33                            29                                            +4

20—Casey Mears                408                          28                            25                                            +3
21—Kevin Harvick                370                          7                              13                                            -6

22—Scott Riggs                    367                          21                            22                                            -1

23—Bobby Labonte             364                          24                            26                                            -2

24—Ricky Rudd                    361                          32                            30                                            +2

25—Dave Blaney                   328                          25                            27                                            -2

25—Scott Wimmer              328                          35                            34                                            +1

27—Jeff Gordon                   320                          5                              14                                            -9

28—Jeff Green                     316                          31                            31                                            E

29—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        310                          15                            18                                            -3

29—Sterling Marlin              310                          20                            24                                            -4

31—Kyle Petty                      306                          30                            32                                            -2

32—Ken Schrader                297                          26                            28                                            -2

33—Kasey Kahne                 289                          16                            21                                            -5

34—Mike Bliss                     295                          29                            33                                            -4

35—Mike Wallace                *188                          34                            35                                            -1

* Wallace missed the Infineon race

 

MAY PERFORMANCE (4 Races:  Talladega, Darlington, Richmond, Charlotte)

Driver                                     Pts.             Start of Month       Month Finish                   Spots Gained/Lost

1—Greg Biffle                       624                          3                              2                              +1

2—Tony Stewart                  575                          14                            6                              +8

3—Kasey Kahne                   541                          20                            16                            +4

4—Jamie McMurray            539                          15                            9                              +6

5—Ryan Newman                 536                          7                              4                              +3

6—Kevin Harvick                  534                          11                            7                              +4

7—Elliott Sadler                    533                          5                              3                              +2

8—Bobby Labonte               528                          34                            24                            +10

9—Jeremy Mayfield            513                          16                            13                            +3

10—Jeff Gordon                   489                          4                              5                              -1

11—Jimmie Johnson          487                          1                              1                              E

12—Carl Edwards                480                          8                              8                              E

13—Ken Schrader                472                          32                            26                            +6

14—Rusty Wallace               469                          10                            11                            -1

15—Dale Jarrett                   459                          13                            14                            -1

16—Dale Earnhardt Jr.        450                          12                            15                            -3

17—Jeff Burton                    446                          17                            17                            E

18—Joe Nemechek             433                          24                            19                            +5

19—Michael Waltrip             429                          18                            18                            E

20—Mark Martin                  426                          6                              12                            -6

21—Jeff Green                     406                          29                            31                            +2

22—Matt Kenseth                401                          28                            23                            +5

23—Ricky Rudd                    390                          31                            32                            -1

24—Kyle Busch                    387                          25                            22                            +3

25—Mike Wallace                 371                          36                            34                            +2

26—Kurt Busch                    354                          2                              10                            -8

27—Dave Blaney                   340                          21                            25                            -4

28—Travis Kvapil                 336                          30                            33                            -3

29—Scott Wimmer              334                          33                            35                            -2

30—Scott Riggs                    333                          19                            21                            -2

31—Mike Bliss                     331                          27                            29                            -2

32—Brian Vickers                319                          23                            27                            -4

33—Casey Mears                312                          26                            28                            -2

34—Kyle Petty                      299                          22                            30                            -8

35—Sterling Marlin              246                          9                              20                            -11

 

 

APRIL PERFORMANCE  (4 Races:  Bristol, Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix)

Driver                                     Pts.              Start of Month       Month Finish                  Spots Gained/Lost

1—Earnhardt Jr.                   582                          26                            12                            +14

2—Jimmie Johnson            580                          1                              1                              E

3—Jeff Gordon                     563                          12                            4                              +8

4—Sterling Marlin                530                          16                            9                              +7

5—Elliott Sadler                    527                          8                              5                              +3

6—Michael Waltrip               514                          27                            18                            +9

7—Kurt Busch                      510                          4                              2                              +2

8—Jeremy Mayfield            494                          21                            16                            +5

9—Dale Jarrett                     491                          15                            13                            +2

10—Rusty Wallace               483                          9                              10                            -1

11—Kevin Harvick                482                          11                            11                            E

12—Ryan Newman               479                          6                              7                              -1

13—Jeff Burton                    462                          20                            17                            +3

14—Kasey Kahne                 461                          28                            20                            +8

15—Mark Martin                  458                          5                              6                              -1

16—Greg Biffle                     454                          2                              3                              -1

17—Joe Nemechek             444                          29                            24                            +5

18—Jamie McMurray          437                          10                            15                            -5

18—Ricky Rudd                    437                          39                            31                            +8

20—Kyle Petty                      417                          24                            22                            +2

21—Scott Riggs                    415                          18                            19                            -1

22—Brian Vickers                406                          22                            23                            -1

22—Matt Kenseth                406                          31                            28                            +3

24—Tony Stewart                399                          7                              14                            -7

25—Carl Edwards                386                          3                              8                              -5

26—Kyle Busch                    372                          19                            25                            -6

27—Bobby Labonte             365                          37                            34                            +3

28—Casey Mears                357                          17                            26                            -9

29—Travis Kvapil                 344                          32                            30                            +2

30—Dave Blaney                   340                          14                            21                            -7

31—Ken Schrader                338                          33                            32                            +1

32—Mike Bliss                     307                          13                            27                            -14

32—Jeff Green                     307                          23                            29                            -6

32—Jason Leffler                307                          34                            35                            -1

35—Scott Wimmer              261                          25                            33                            -8