THIS WEEKLY REPORT IS DEDICATED TO THE MEMORY OF DAVID POOLE

 

 

2009 RACE TO THE CHASE

After Race #25 of 26:  Atlanta #2

Races Left to the Chase: 1

Richmond  #2

 

                                                Out         Last        Gain/Loss                                             Top         Top         Bot

09/LW/LY                 Pts       of 13^th    Race      13^th         Lst 5       W—2—3               5s           10s         10s

1/1/8-STEWART   3694       +637       11/130   -16          655/E     3—4—3                 13           18           1

2/3/10-JGORDON 3457     +400       8/147      +1           610/+1   1—6—0                 11           17           2

3/2/3-JOHNSON  3404       +347       36/60      -86          542/-1    3—3—1                 9              15           3

4/4/11-HAMLIN     3296       +239       6/155      +9           778/+2   1—2—2                 8              13           3

 

5/5/2-EDWARDS 3162       +105       37/52      -94          606/E     0—1—2                 7              11           1

6/11/14-Kahne     3153       +96         1/190      +44         671/+2   2—0—1                 5              10           1

7/6/19-KuBusch   3152       +95         38/49      -97          440/-3    1—0—2                 6              13           3

8/9/21-Montoya    3145       +88         3/170      +24         699/+2   0—1—1                 2              12           0

9/7/16-Newman   3138       +81         9/143      -3            632/-2    0—1—1                 5              11           1

10/10/28-Martin    3126       +69         5/155      +9           655/-1    4—2—0                 8              13           5

11/8/6-BIFFLE      3125       +68         10/139   -7            680/E     0—0—2                 8              12           2

12/12/9-KENSETH 3077    +20         12/132   -14          648/E     2—0—0                 4              9              1

                                                Out of

                                                12^th

13/14/15-Vickers 3057       -20          7/151      +19         748/+2   1—0—0                 4              12           2

14/13/1-KYBSCH 3040       -37          13/129   -3            693/E     4—0—1                 6              8              3

15/16/25-Reutmn2945       -132        4/160      +28         584/-2    1—0—1                 5              8              1

 

16/15/12-BOYER 2909       -168        29/76      -56          631/E     0—1—1                 4              10           2

18/18/5-BURTON 2629      -448        34/61      -71          428/-1    0—0—2                 2              6              4

21/21/4-DALEJR 2528       -549        17/112   -20          545/+1   0—1—1                 2              5              5

23/24/7-HARVICK 2475     -602        2/175      +43         536/E     0—2—0                 3              4              7                             

2008  Chase participants in ALL CAPS

 

 

CHASE SEEDING

1—Mark Martin                     5040                       7—Denny Hamlin                                5010

2—Tony Stewart                  5030                       8—Kurt Busch                      5010

3—Jimmie Johnson           5030                       9—Carl Edwards                 5000

4—Kasey Kahne                 5020                       10—Ryan Newman            5000

5—Matt Kenseth                  5020                       11—Juan Montoya              5000

6—Jeff Gordon                     5010                       12—Greg Biffle                    5000

 

 

CLINCH SCENARIOS

                                                Pts Needed

After Michigan #2                 +586                       Stewart Clinched

After Bristol #2                      +391                       Johnson, J. Gordon Clinched

After Atlanta #2                     +196                       Hamlin Clinched

Positions #5 - #12 in “Danger Zone” going to Richmond

 

NOTES:

 

·          ONE OF THE TIGHTEST RACES TO THE CHASE IN HISTORY:  Eleven drivers going for 8 spots Saturday night at Richmond. Only one other time, 2006, have 8 spots been up for grabs. Only two others times has the gap between the final Chase spot and the first contender been less than 20 points, the difference between 12^th place Matt Kenseth and 13^th place Brian Vickers when the green flag falls at RIR. In 2005, Ryan Newman stood one single point away from 10^th place Jamie McMurray at the start and easily made the Chase with a 12^th while McMurray had an accident and finished 40^th. Last year, Clint Bowyer held a 17-point margin over David Ragan going into the 26^th race, and his 12^th place finish easily outdistanced Ragan’s 32^nd.

·          ONLY TWO OUTSIDERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE CHASE AT RIR:  In the five years of the Chase format, only twice has a driver sitting outside the Chase field at the start of the race been able to race his way into the playoffs.  In the first Race to the Chase in 2004, Jeremy Mayfield’s dramatic win jumped him four spots into the Chase.  In 2006, Kasey Kahne stormed to a third place finish at RIR and knocked out Tony Stewart, who managed only an 18^th that night.

·          HAMLIN CLINCHES HIS FOURTH STRAIGHT CHASE:  Denny Hamlin quietly clinched his spot in the Chase at Atlanta with a sixth. Hamlin is 4-for-4 in Chase attempts, making it in his first full year in 2006 and every year since. The #11 car has been one of the steadiest in the field the last month.

·          KYLE BUSCH CAN PUT THE HEAT ON AT RIR:  Kyle Busch, 37 points out of Matt Kenseth, can force the #17 to get a top 5 by winning the final race before the Chase, something Kenseth hasn’t done since 2005. Richmond has been a tough track for Brian Vickers, who doesn’t have a top 10 in his last 9 starts there. His hope is that Kyle Busch has trouble and he outruns Kenseth for the final spot, unless someone else in the “danger zone” has problems.

·          REUTIMANN “THE FORGOTTEN MAN” STILL IN CONTENTION:  It’s a longshot, but David Reutimann gutted out a 4^th at Atlanta and stayed in mathematical contention for the Chase, 132 points out. It has been a landmark season for the veteran driver, getting Michael Waltrip Racing into Chase contention for the first time.

·          T12 BY OWNERS:  Stewart-Haas 2 of 2 (100%), Hendrick 3 of 4 (75%), Roush 3 of 5 (60%),   Earnhardt/Ganassi 1 of 2 (50%) Gibbs 1 of 3 (33%), Penske 1 of 3 (33%), Petty 1 of 3 (33%). 

·          T12 BY MANUFACTURERS:  Chevrolet 6, Ford 3, Dodge 2, Toyota 1,

 

 

RACE TO THE CHASE COMPARISON CHARTS

                                      Out of                                                      out of                                                     out of

2008                       pts/13^th                   2007                       pts/13^th                   2006                       pts/11th 

1- KY BUSCH       3755/+783            1-JGORDON        3679/+798            1-M KENSETH     3638/+489

2-C EDWARDS    3547/+575            2-T STEWART      3362/+481            2-J JOHNSON      3629/+480

3-J JOHNSON      3386/+414            3-D HAMLIN          3335/+454            3-K HARVICK       3296/+147

4-DALE JR            3323/+351            4-C EDWARDS    3330/+449            4-J GORDON       3251/+102

5-J BURTON        3234/+262            5-M KENSETH     3309/+428            5-KY BUSCH        3244/+95

6-G BIFFLE           3159/+187            6-J JOHNSON      3249/+368            6-DALE JR            3226/+77

7-K HARVICK       3132/+160            7-J BURTON        3219/+338            7-D HAMLIN          3225/+76

8- T STEWART     3110/+138            8-KY BUSCH        3199/+318            8-T Stewart           3194/+45

9-M KENSETH     3081/+109            9-C BOWYER       3047/+166            9-M MARTIN          3181/+32

10-J GORDON     3074/+102            10-M TRUEX         3042/+161            10-J BURTON      3179/+30

11-D HAMLIN       3065/+93               11-KU BUSCH     3022/+141                           

12-C BOWYER     2989/+17               12-K HARVICK     3009/+128

 

13-D Ragan          2972/-17                13-Dale Jr             2881/-128             11-K KAHNE         3149/-30

14-K Kahne          2941/-48                                               

                                                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                               

2005                                                       2004

1-T STEWART      3570/+642            1-J JOHNSON      3482/+449

2-G BIFFLE           3361/+433            2-J GORDON       3432/+399

3-J JOHNSON      3312/+384            3-DALE JR            3366/+333

4-R WALLACE      3257/+329            4-T STEWART      3304/+271

5-M MARTIN          3149/+221            5-M KENSETH     3253/+220

6-KU BUSCH       3114/+186            6-E SADLER         3204/+171

7-J MAYFIELD      3073/+145            7-KU BUSCH       3186/+153

8-C EDWARDS    3014/+86               8-R NEWMAN       3078/+45

9-M KENSETH     2939/+11               9-K Kahne             3067/+34

10-J McMurray      2929/+1                 10-M MARTIN       3058/+25

 

11-R NEWMAN    2928/-1                  11-J McMurray      3033/-25

12-J Gordon         2899/-30                12-B Labonte       3022/-36

13-E Sadler          2877/-52                13-D Jarrett           3015/-43

14-D Jarrett           2812/-117             14-J MAYFIELD    3003/-55

15-K Harvick         2798/-131             15-K Harvick         3002/-56               

16-J Nemechek   2794/-135            

Eventual champion in italics

Underline denotes last driver with more than one-race margin over 13^th place. Until 2007, the most points you could lose to another driver if you started  the race was 156. With the extra five points for winning instituted in 2007, you can now lose 161.