When the New York Yankees were good and not getting swept by a team with a third of its payroll, there was a catcher named Yogi Berra who said crazy stuff that somehow made sense.
“Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.”
“Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical.”
“I really didn’t say everything I said.”
And apropos of this NASCAR Cup Series Chase … ‘It ain’t over ’til it’s over.”
Just a few weeks ago in this space, we were writing about Kyle Larson getting his swagger back, ending a 51-race winless drought at World Wide Technology Raceway and climbing to second in the Chase standings, nine points behind Denny Hamlin.
We also suggested that the rest of the field should be afraid of what might happen next.
What happened next has been historic.
Through the first five races of the Chase, the defending two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion has finished no worse than fifth, won at Kansas Speedway and built a 40-point advantage over Hamlin.
As you no doubt heard in this week’s episode of the Hauler Talk Podcast episode, Larson’s 2.2 Chase average finish ranks P1 over the first five races in Chase history (2004-2013, 2026). The rest of the top five are Jimmie Johnson (2009, 3.2), Jeff Gordon (2007, 4.0), Johnson again (2013, 4.0) and Kurt Busch (2004, 4.2). Only Gordon failed to go on to win the championship, and it took Johnson winning four consecutive races in the second half of the 2007 Chase to stop him.
So, yes, there are plenty of reasons to believe Larson can finish this thing. There’s just one minor detail standing in the way of officially calling it finished: five races remain in the Chase, and the way the rest of the schedule is laid out is anything but a free pass.
Here’s a list of why it ain’t over ‘til it’s over:
Wild Card Tracks Could Trip Up Larson
Meanwhile, the schedule has a couple of its own wrinkles. Talladega Superspeedway is always capable of making things particularly interesting, while the fall Chase race at Charlotte Motor Speedway returns to the oval for the first time since 2017.
Charlotte and Talladega also happen to be two of the five tracks where Larson has recorded the most career finishes of 30th or worse. That’s not exactly a prediction of doom for the No. 5 team, but it is a perfectly sensible reason to hold off on assuming everyone already knows how this ends.
The rest of the field will surely put up a fight this Sunday, October 11, during the Bank of America 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway (3 p.m. ET on USA Network, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Hamlin Didn’t Forget How to Be Awesome
Denny Hamlin may be 40 points behind, but the remaining schedule includes several tracks where he’s already proven he can win. The driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has six career victories at Martinsville Speedway, three at Homestead-Miami Speedway, two at Phoenix Raceway, two at Talladega Superspeedway and one at Charlotte Motor Speedway, giving him 14 wins across all five tracks still standing between Larson and the championship.
Back Half of Chase Sets Up Nicely For Blaney
Ryan Blaney and the No. 12 Team Penske Ford present another problem. Blaney won at Phoenix earlier this year and has also been particularly strong at Martinsville, giving Team Penske plenty of reason to believe the final stretch can still swing its way.
Even Though Larson Called BS, Bell’s Pretty Darn Good
Power steering or not, Christopher Bell is still close enough to make things interesting, too. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota driver opened the Chase with a win at Darlington Raceway and has already shown this season that he can put together the kind of weekends that change the championship picture quickly.
Logano Has Chip On Shoulder
Joey Logano has quietly climbed into fourth after winning at Bristol Motor Speedway in the latest installment of his “4 THE HATERS” campaign. Per sources, the driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford was not particularly interested in letting everyone else have all the fun.
— NASCAR —