The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup cut-off bubble is as tight as ever. One single point is the difference between competing for a championship and missing out altogether. Mark Martin is 13th, one point behind Denny Hamlin in 12th. Only once in the Chase era (2004-Present) have the standings been this close at this juncture. After 14 races in 2005, when the Chase was a 10-driver field, 11th-place Kurt Busch trailed 10th-place Tony Stewart by a point. With 12 races still left to go to determine the 2009 Chase field, no one is really safe, but bet on Tony Stewart +365, Jeff Gordon +294 and Jimmie Johnson +262 to make the field. After that, Ryan Newman barely has a one race edge at +162 ahead of 13th place. Places 5-12 are all within one race of falling out of the Top 12, as Mark Martin did with his 19th at Pocono. Five drivers are within one race of piercing the Top 12. Of the five only Juan Montoya and Brian Vickers have yet to make a Chase. They should resurrect the Goody’s Headache award for Denny Hamlin. Mechanical problems sent the usually reliable Hamlin to the garage early, and he managed only a 38th place at Pocono. The #11 has dropped seven spots in five races and now hangs in the Top 12 by a mere point. Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s disappointing 27th at Pocono dropped him 30 points further behind the Top 12 and two more positions. Kevin Harvick’s 24th lost him 21 points to 12th place and two spots, and “Happy” is now 327 points out. If he comes back and makes The Chase, he will break the record of Matt Kenseth, who roared back from 320 points out with 12 to go in 2005. See year-to-year comparisons, 2009 breakdown and more on my Chase Stats after Pocono page.(6-11-2009)
