Matt Kenseth never could get his #17 car right at Richmond, and that opened the door for his two Chasers, #83-Brian Vickers and #18-Kyle Busch. While he never challenged for the win, Busch brought home a fifth, but the shocker was Vickers, who stayed within range of Busch in the critical final laps and fought off #77-Sam Hornish and #29-Kevin Harvick to finish a RIR career-best seventh and storm into his first Chase. The eight-point margin was the closest in the six-year history of the format, eclipsing the 15-point margin Ryan Newman held over Jamie McMurray for the final spot in 2004. Had Vickers lost two positions in the final laps, he would have lost on the tie-breaker to Busch, who had four wins to Vickers’ one.
Watch out for #11-Denny Hamlin in Chase VI. He goes to New Hampshire having won Richmond for the first time, and having scored the second most points in the last 13 races. As the only Joe Gibbs entry to make the Chase, all resources at JGR should be available to the #11 Fed Ex Toyota. Denny has made every Chase in his four full seasons.
Six spots turned over from the 2008 to the 2009 Chase. Out were #18-Kyle Busch, #17-Matt Kenseth (first Chase miss in six years), #33-Clint Bowyer, #31-Jeff Burton, #88-Dale Earnhardt Jr. and #29-Kevin Harvick. In: #2-Kurt Busch, #5-Mark Martin, #42-Juan Pablo Montoya, #9-Kasey Kahne, #39-Ryan Newman and #83-Brian Vickers. Montoya and Vickers are making the Chase for the first time in their careers, same for their teams, Ganassi/Earnhardt and Red Bull Racing. Perhaps a sign that the “new car” has leveled the playing field and created opportunities for other teams to compete.
Only once, Kurt Busch (7th) in the inaugural 2004 Chase, has the champion come from further than fourth place in points scored during the first 26. Based on that stat, only Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin would have a shot at the title. Twice in five years has the driver with the most wins in the first 26 races won the title, so add Mark Martin, who leads the Chase field with four wins. So, unless we see a repeat of 2004, the champion will come from this group of five. For more Chase Stats, Comparisons and more on my Chase Stats after Richmond page.(9-18-2009)
