For the first time this season, a non-playoff driver is the favorite to win a playoff race. That honor belongs to the red hot Tyler Reddick. That said, the playoff drivers are right on his heels.
Reddick has been on a tear the last few weeks. Over his last four races he’s had 3 top-8 finishes including a victory. So it’s no surprise that FanDuel is giving him +700 odds, or an implied 12.5% chance to win this week. He’s quickly followed by two playoff drivers in Denny Hamlin, +850, and Ryan Blaney, +900.
What’s interesting is that none of the top-3 drivers in the standings are among the top-3 on the market. All three of Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Chase Elliott are tied for fourth on the market at +1000 along with last year’s champion Kyle Larson. Meanwhile, Chase Briscoe is still considered the worst driver left in the playoffs as he’s given +2500 odds, or just an implied 3.8% chance to win the race.
Quote from OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, “It’s been fascinating to watch the odds market this year. When the non-playoff drivers were dominating the playoff races all sportsbooks wanted to do was back the playoff drivers. Now that playoff drivers have won the last three races, an eliminated driver is at the top of the market. Are the sportsbooks just behind the trends or do they simply believe in Reddick’s hot streak?”
DIXIE VODKA 400 ODDS
| Driver | Odds | Implied chance |
| Tyler Reddick | +700 | 12.5% |
| Denny Hamlin | +850 | 10.5% |
| Ryan Blaney | +900 | 10% |
| Joey Logano | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Ross Chastain | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Chase Elliott | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Kyle Larson | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Christopher Bell | +1200 | 7.7% |
| William Byron | +1200 | 7.7% |
— OddsChecker —