Kyle Larson only needs to collect nine points in Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Homestead-Miami Speedway (3 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) to hoist his third career championship trophy and second consecutive. But the 33-year-old Californian has been adamant about taking nothing for granted.
It’s an understandable strategy considering the strength of his two closest challengers, Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, who for the eighth time in his decorated career has lined up for the final green flag with a shot at the season title.
All three drivers have won races in the last eight events held at the 1.5-mile South Florida oval – a favorite venue among the racers. And any chance of taking the trophy out of Larson’s hands involves a must-win for either Bell or Hamlin.
Larson is a two-time Homestead race winner and the defending race champ, claiming the trophy in the March race here last year. Hamlin is the winningest among the three contenders – with trophies in 2009, ’13 and ’20. Bell won in 2023.
Larson, driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, rode a 51-race winless streak heading into the Chase, but has answered with three victories and holds a series-best 6.8 place average finish during the nine Chase races to date.
Comparatively, Hamlin, driver of the No. 11 JGR Toyota is averaging 11.2 during the 10-race Chase and Bell, driver of the No. 20 JGR Toyota, an 11.5. Hamlin’s average finish (10.2) is third best all-time at this track. Larson’s 645 laps out front are most in the field.
However, this season, Hamlin has earned the most points on 1.5-milers by 51 points more than Larson and 84 more than his teammate Bell. He also boasts the most wins (16) on that style of venue compared to Larson (11) and Bell (2).
With Larson taking such a commanding points advantage into the race, Hamlin and Bell concede their path is at least straight if not easy. They must win the race.
“I feel confident that I’ll be able to go there and contend,” Hamlin said.
Both contenders feel plenty of optimistic despite the challenge.
“My team has done a really good job,” Bell said. “They’re resilient, they’re just really resilient. They’ve shown throughout the years that whenever it matters the most, they show up in the biggest ways.”
“I’m proud of where we’re at, and certainly proud that we’ve been so close year in and year out, but we do want to get that golden egg.”
Larson has consistently maintained that even though statistically he holds a large margin of good opportunity on Sunday, he’s taking nothing for granted and most comfortable finding the same groove he’s thrived on throughout the season.
“You’ve worked so hard to put yourself in this position, so I’d hate for something crazy to happen,” Larson said. “I’ve kind of felt some sort of pressure leading up to the week and the race, but for me once I get in the car and put my helmet on, I completely forget what’s at stake. I haven’t really felt any pressure once I’m behind the wheel.
While more typically a championship contender has gone on to win the race, there is still plenty of potential for other drivers to move up in the final standings.
23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (2024), last week’s Martinsville winner, Hendrick’s William Byron (2023) and three-time series champion, Team Penske’s Joey Logano (2019) are also former Homestead winners.
Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney has been runner-up in two of the last three Homestead races and has six top-10 finishes in 10 of the last races at 1.5-milers. JGR’s Chase Briscoe has won three of the last four races on 1.5-mile tracks.
Five drivers who won in 2025 are still racing for their first trophy of the season, including Wood Brothers Racing’s Josh Berry, Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon, Team Penske’s Austin Cindric, 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace and Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain.
Busch Light Pole Qualifying is set for 2:30 p.m. ET Friday (truTV, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Larson’s Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman is the defending pole winner.
— NASCAR News Wire —