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Ryan Blaney the favorite to win the GEICO 500

For only the second time this season, the favorite to win a race is given less than a 10% chance. It just so happens that Ryan Blaney was the favorite to win the first, and now he’s the favorite to win the Geico 500.

Blaney is given +1000 odds, or an implied 9.1% chance to win the race. Those odds didn’t work out for him last time, as he finished 17th at the QuikTrip 500 despite being the favorite at +1000. So it’d be wise to keep an eye on his biggest rival in this race. That would be Joey Logano at +1200, or an implied 7.7% chance to win.

After the top-2, the odds get very cluttered with six drivers given +1400 odds. Among them are some drivers who we haven’t seen in the top-10 on the odds market in a while. Namely, Brad Keslowski, Bubba Wallace, and Austin Cindric. To see any of them win would be a shock considering the trio hasn’t had a top-10 finish since Cindric and Wallace finished 1-2 at the Daytona 500.

Quote from OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, “The odds market for this race is fascinating. Among the top-8 in odds, only three drivers have wins this year. Cindric hasn’t placed-10 since his win at Daytona, Denny Hamlin only has one other top-13 finish all year, and Chase Briscoe has been among the most unpredictable drivers this season. All of this is to say, oddsmakers truly see the Geico 500 as wide open. This is anyone’s race to win.”


Driver Odds Implied chance
Ryan Blaney +1000 9.1%
Joey Logano +1200 7.7%
Denny Hamlin +1400 6.7%
Chase Elliott +1400 6.7%
Brad Keselowski +1400 6.7%
Bubba Wallace +1400 6.7%
Austin Cindric +1400 6.7%
Chase Briscoe +1400 6.7%
Kyle Larson +1600 5.9%
Kyle Busch +1600 5.9%