It comes down to this. The final four drivers will race in Phoenix to decide who will win the 2022 NASCAR Championship. Sportsbooks are backing the man they have ever since the playoffs started, Chase Elliott.
Elliott is given +200 odds, or an implied 33.3% chance to win his second championship. However, he also comes into the day with the worst record over his last 4 races. Elliott has averaged a 15th place finish over the third round of the playoffs, by far the worst of the four drivers left standing.
Shock finalist Christopher Bell is given the second-best odds at +285 or an implied 26% chance to win his first championship, his previous best was a 12th place finish last season. Bell has all the momentum in the world coming off his victory this past weekend. He’s won 2 of his last 4 races. He’s the only driver who’s won two playoff races this season.
Joey Logano and Ross Chastain are tied for 3rd on the market at +330, or an implied 23.3% chance to bring home a championship. Logano won the championship back in 2018, and he’s been excellent in the playoffs this season. He won just a few weeks ago in Las Vegas and finished sixth last weekend. Meanwhile, Ross Chastain is the only driver left who doesn’t have a playoff victory and his previous best finish is 20th in 2021. However, Chastain does have four top-4 finishes though equal to that of Christopher Bell. Chastain has averaged a 3rd place finish in the last round, with two second place finishes and a fourth place, that’s the best of any driver left.
Quote from OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, “Sportsbooks may be favoring Elliott and Bell, but history certainly isn’t. Earlier this year when these drivers met in Phoenix Bell finished in 27th pace and Elliott in 11th. Meanwhile, Logano earned a 2nd place finish and Ross Chastain finished 2nd. Logano hasn’t finished worse than 11th at Phoenix since 2019, and he finished top-10 or better in 6 of the 7 times he’s raced there. Logano and Elliott both have wins here, Chastain has a 2nd place finish, and Bell’s never finished better than 9th. The Sportsbooks say Elliott, momentum says Bell, history says Elliott, and consistency says Chastain. Who’s going to prevail?”
NASCAR CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER
| Driver | Odds | Implied chance |
| Chase Elliott | +200 | 33.3% |
| Christopher Bell | +285 | 26.0% |
| Joey Logano | +330 | 23.3% |
| Ross Chastain | +330 | 23.3% |
— Oddschecker —