In 2006, Jimmie Johnson took over the Chase lead with two races left in the season en route to winning his first career Cup title. This year, he takes a larger points lead to Phoenix and only five other drivers are still in contention for the Nextel Cup championship. Jeff Gordon is the closest competitor to Johnson but will be challenged in his attempt to retake the lead considering how well Johnson has raced lately. Gordon could win at Phoenix and Homestead-Miami (the final two races) and still not win the title. Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart are mathematically still alive. However, they need a monumental collapse by Johnson in addition to gaining the maximum points in the last two events to have a chance to win the Chase. The following scenarios show how each driver could finish ahead of Johnson in the final two races (each scenario holds true regardless of Johnson leading a lap in each race unless otherwise specified): Chase Chances 1) Jimmie Johnson Chase leader 2) Jeff Gordon (-30 points) If he finishes nine places better than Johnson in each of the next two races, or if he wins out and leads the most laps in each event 3) Clint Bowyer (-181) If he wins out and leads the most laps in each event, and needs for Johnson to average a 22nd-place finish or worse 4) Kyle Busch (-339) If he wins out and leads the most laps in each event, and needs for Johnson to not start one race and finish 40th or worse in the other race 5) Carl Edwards (-357) If he wins out and leads the most laps in each event, and needs for Johnson to not start the final two races 6) Tony Stewart (-373) If he wins out and leads the most laps in each event, and needs for Johnson to not start the final two races Drivers 7-12 Eliminated from championship contention.(ESPN.com’s Terry Blount)(11-6-2007) AND: Johnson would clinch if he gains 131 points on Gordon at Phoenix, assuming Johnson starts the last race. If Gordon blows an engine and finishes last at Phoenix, Johnson would have to finish fourth or better (if he led a lap) to win the championship. If Johnson wins the race and leads the most laps, he would clinch if Gordon finishes 35th or worse and doesn’t lead a lap.(ESPN.com’s Terry Blount)(11-7/11-2007)
