OK, there are a lot of numbers, but it’s not as confusing as it may look. There are 11 different winners. There are five races left in the regular season. And there will be 16 drivers in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. In other words, after this weekend, the playoff picture will come closer into focus. Here’s where we stand now:
With the exception of #18-Kyle Busch, all drivers with multiple wins have clinched a spot in the Chase, assuming all start the remainder of the regular season races. That includes #48-Jimmie Johnson, #4-Kevin Harvick, #88-Dale Earnhardt Jr., #20-Matt Kenseth and #41-Kurt Busch. (Kyle Busch has not clinched a spot yet because he needs to first lock up a top 30 spot.)
None of the single-win drivers have fully clinched a Chase spot yet. Here’s the reason: There’s still the potential of a zero-win points leader – and the regular season points leader is guaranteed a Chase spot, regardless of win total. Which leads us to the math above”¦
Because there aren’t enough races left to fill out the Chase Grid with more than 16 unique winners, if there is a repeat winner at Watkins Glen this weekend, all single-win drivers will clinch a spot as long as they have also clinched a top-30 spot. All except Carl Edwards have already done this, and Edwards will likely accomplish the feat this weekend.
If there’s a new winner this weekend, a number of different scenarios can play out. This weekend, Kevin Harvick can mathematically guarantee that the points leader at regular season’s end has a win. If he leaves Watkins Glen with a 176-point lead over the highest non-winning driver, it would guarantee the points leader after race No. 26 would have at least one win – and all one-win drivers would then clinch a spot as long as they also have clinched a top 30 spot. If Harvick doesn’t accomplish the above, and there’s a new winner, single-win drivers could lock up a Chase spot, but would need help (a clinching single-win driver would need to ensure that the lowest ranked winner could not pass him/her in the points – and that includes drivers who could potentially win).(NASCAR)(8-6-2015)
