The playoffs have been wild this season. Prior to 2022, only one driver who hadn’t qualified for the playoffs had ever won a playoff race, but we’ve already seen that happen twice this season. However, sportsbooks believe this week’s race will be dominated by playoff drivers.
Denny Hamlin leads the way this week with +700 odds, or an implied 12.5% chance to win the race. The stacked field includes five other drivers given at least a 10% chance to win with Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Kyle Busch all given +800 odds and Kevin Harvick and Christopher Bell given +900.
The top non-playoff driver is once again Martin Truex Jr. who’s given +1800 odds, or an implied 5.3% chance to win. That ties him with William Byron who’s currently second in the Drivers’ Championship standings. Meanwhile, last week’s winner, Bubba Wallace, is given +2800 odds or an implied 3.4% chance to win the race.
Quote from OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, “Denny Hamlin as the favorite makes sense here. He’s finished second in both playoff races so far and he does have two wins on this course. It’s the same reason Kyle Busch, who’s won the race three times, is among the favorites this week despite a rough start to the playoffs. Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick have won the race each of the last two years. Meanwhile, Chase Elliott was the regular season champion and Christopher Bell is the current playoff leader. All the odds make sense here, as sportsbooks are backing guys who are racing well, have a strong history on the course, or both. It’s the first time since the playoffs began that sportsbooks have been so logical with their odds.”
BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE WINNER
| Driver | Odds | Implied chance |
| Denny Hamlin | +700 | 12.5% |
| Chase Elliott | +800 | 11.1% |
| Kyle Busch | +800 | 11.1% |
| Kyle Larson | +800 | 11.1% |
| Christopher Bell | +900 | 10% |
| Kevin Harvick | +900 | 10% |
| Tyler Reddick | +1300 | 7.1% |
| Ross Chastain | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Ryan Blaney | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Joey Logano | +1600 | 5.9% |
— OddsChecker —