BROOKLYN, MICHIGAN - AUGUST 17: Bubba Wallace, driver of the #23 McDonald's Toyota, enters his car during practice for the NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway on August 17, 2024 in Brooklyn, Michigan. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images) | Getty Images
BROOKLYN, MICHIGAN - AUGUST 17: Bubba Wallace, driver of the #23 McDonald's Toyota, enters his car during practice for the NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway on August 17, 2024 in Brooklyn, Michigan. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Playoff bubble battle tightens leading into Michigan

By Dustin Albino

BROOKLYN, Mich — When Austin Dillon was stripped of his playoff eligibility for wrecking Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin on the final lap at Richmond Raceway en route to the victory, another playoff spot opened on points. It’s simple math.

Martin Truex Jr. remained 78 points above the elimination line entering Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Ty Gibbs is still 19 points ahead. Bubba Wallace moved from the bubble driver to 15th on the playoff grid, three points ahead of Chris Buescher. Ross Chastain and Buescher are tied, with the tiebreaker going to Buescher because he has a better finish thus far in the regular season, placing runner-up to Kyle Larson at Kansas Speedway in the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history (.001 seconds).

Most of the playoff bubble drivers were in agreement that they were pleased to have another spot open up. However, a possible wild card race at Daytona International Speedway looms next week as the penultimate race of the regular season. Five of the last seven Daytona winners are currently on the outside looking in to the postseason. Darlington Raceway, the final race of the regular season, is also considered by many drivers in the Cup field as the most challenging oval on the schedule.

“We are still only in by three, but there are still four spots left instead of the three,” Wallace said on Saturday at Michigan. “Definitely a relief there, but it is still going to be a dogfight. I said that after [Richmond] – it is going to be a dogfight for the next three races. We are still not safe but there is an extra spot open now.”

Over the last five races, Wallace’s 7.8 average finish trails only his 23XI Racing teammate Tyler Reddick (3.2) and defending Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney (6.2) for the best in the series. Entering one of his best race tracks on the circuit, he has three straight top-10 finishes for the first time in more than a calendar year.

“Taking a step back, taking a deep breath and working through the problems,” Wallace stated on what has led to his recent consistency. “Accepting if it is not your day, handle it – and when it is not your day, it’s not that bad of a day. When it is a good day, we are executing on those days as well. We’ve shown up with a lot of speed the last few weeks. We’ve shown up with our heads in the game, and we’ve been close a couple of times.

“I said that at the beginning of the year – you have to put your name in the hat, and we went a long time not even having right size of hat on. Definitely showing up and being in the game, from the start of practice to the end of the race. It is so hard to do.”

On the flip side, Gibbs, Wallace’s Toyota teammate, has bled points in recent weeks. The No. 54 team went from being a near lock to having a single top-10 finish over the last nine races. Six of those results have been outside the top 20.

Engine issues in consecutive weeks at Pocono and Indianapolis, as well as a mediocre run at Richmond, tallied a mere 42 points for Gibbs over three races. In that same span, Wallace earned 111 points.

“I try to do the best I can and outside of that, I can’t control anything,” Gibbs noted. “With some of the mechanical stuff we’ve had, I can’t do anything. I know the guys are working hard to figure out what’s going on. What am I going to do? Am I going to think my way into changing an issue? I can’t do anything.”

BROOKLYN, MICHIGAN - AUGUST 17: Ross Chastain, driver of the #1 Busch Light Peach Chevrolet, drives during practice for the NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway on August 17, 2024 in Brooklyn, Michigan. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Chastain scored his best finish on an oval since early March at Richmond. It was just his third top-five finish in 23 races this season. The No. 1 team plans to race for the win over the final three races of the regular season, a strategy it hasn’t divvied from all season.

“I don’t look at anything other than trying to go fast,” Chastain said of his outlook. “Coming out of the break, obviously you go to Richmond and run up inside the top-10; drive up there from the 20s and into 11th-ish. And then to race and go on and finish fifth, that’s better than we have been for several months. So that’s the only thing we’re focused on — executing.”

Of the final three races in the regular season, Buescher is the defending winner of the next two. That didn’t bode well last week at Richmond, however, when he finished 18th.

Over the next three weeks, the No. 17 team plans to have a similar strategy as it has recently and not focus on its closest competitors in the bubble hunt.

“I would say similar to the last couple months for us. When we go to the racetrack, we need to control what we can,” Buescher stated. “We need to take these Saturdays and be good in qualifying. Figure out how to have a good race car, get into the race. If we can qualify well, then you can typically grab stage points early. That just comes with running well.

“What we have done or paid attention to is we know the cars that are around us in this bubble. We pay attention to if they have a rough day and if we are handed a gift of sorts in how their race plays out, then to make sure that we don’t hurt ourselves somewhere else along the way. Don’t do anything too crazy and put ourselves in a bad spot.”

Unfortunately for Buescher, qualifying was canceled due to rain at Michigan. The No. 17 car will start 18th, one spot ahead of Gibbs. Meanwhile, Wallace (fifth) and Chastain (seventh) will both take the initial green flag from the top 10.