Eleven drivers going for 8 spots Saturday night at Richmond. Only one other time, 2006, have 8 spots been up for grabs. Only two others times has the gap between the final Chase spot and the first contender been less than 20 points, the difference between 12th place Matt Kenseth and 13th place Brian Vickers when the green flag falls at RIR. In 2005, Ryan Newman stood one single point away from 10th place Jamie McMurray at the start and easily made the Chase with a 12th while McMurray had an accident and finished 40th. Last year, Clint Bowyer held a 17-point margin over David Ragan going into the 26th race, and his 12th place finish easily outdistanced Ragan’s 32nd. In the five years of the Chase format, only twice has a driver sitting outside the Chase field at the start of the race been able to race his way into the playoffs. In the first Race to the Chase in 2004, Jeremy Mayfield’s dramatic win jumped him four spots into the Chase. In 2006, Kasey Kahne stormed to a third place finish at RIR and knocked out Tony Stewart, who managed only an 18th that night. Denny Hamlin quietly clinched his spot in the Chase at Atlanta with a sixth. Hamlin is 4-for-4 in Chase attempts, making it in his first full year in 2006 and every year since. The #11 car has been one of the steadiest in the field the last month. Kyle Busch, 37 points out of Matt Kenseth, can force the #17 to get a top 5 by winning the final race before the Chase, something Kenseth hasn’t done since 2005. Richmond has been a tough track for Brian Vickers, who doesn’t have a top 10 in his last 9 starts there. His hope is that Kyle Busch has trouble and he outruns Kenseth for the final spot, unless someone else in the “danger zone” has problems. It’s a longshot, but David Reutimann gutted out a 4th at Atlanta and stayed in mathematical contention for the Chase, 132 points out. It has been a landmark season for the veteran driver, getting Michael Waltrip Racing into Chase contention for the first time. See more on my Chase Stats after Atlanta page.(9-10-2009)
