Sportsbooks pulled a major shocker this week. The favorite isn’t Chase Elliott, it’s not Kyle Larson, nor Ryan Blaney, and not even Ross Chastain. Instead, in a shocking move the favorite is Martin Truex Jr.
Truex is given +600 odds, or an implied 14.3% chance to win the race. His biggest competition is expected to be Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, both given +700 odds or an implied 12.5% chance to win. Then it’s Christopher Bell in 4th with +900 odds, or an implied 10% chance.
None of the usual favorites are given even a 10% chance to win the race. Elliott is given +1000 odds, or an implied 9.1% chance. Larson is given +1100 odds, or an implied 8.3% chance. Blaney is at +1200, or an implied 7.7% chance. Lastly, Chastain is given +1400 odds or an implied 6.7% chance to win the race. It’s the first time this season that none of those four have either been the favorite or had at least a 10% chance to win.
Quote from OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, “This is only the second time that Truex has been favored to win a race this season. The last time, the Blue-Emu 400, Truex finished 22nd. The eventual winner of the race, William Byron, was given +1200 odds despite an incredibly strong start to the season. Now with only a few races to go before the playoffs the books are back on Truex. Will it go the same way it went last time with a driver that’s been better this season taking home the win? The books certainly don’t like the usual favorites here.”
FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400 WINNER
| Driver | Odds | Implied chance |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +600 | 14.3% |
| Denny Hamlin | +700 | 12.5% |
| Kyle Busch | +700 | 12.5% |
| Christopher Bell | +900 | 10% |
| Chase Elliott | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Kyle Larson | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Ross Chastain | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Kevin Harvick | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Joey Logano | +1600 | 5.9% |
— Oddschecker —